On day four of the Russian assault on Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin has placed the country’s nuclear deterrents on “special alert” adding a whole new dimension to the war. Not that Moscow is about to launch a nuclear attack, but to intimidate the US and its NATO allies with fear of a nuclear fall-out in Europe. The US and its West have slapped crippling all-encompassing sanctions on Russia, which while hurting the world economy will effectively stop Russia’s lucrative international trade and the billions it earns from selling its oil and gas to Europe. The West’s economic war against Russia would in the long term have a devastating effect on the Russian economy. Never mind that it would also hurt Europe, America and the rest of the world too.
At the same time Ukraine has accepted Russia’s offer of talks set up for Monday at the border with Belarus. Initially Kyiv had turned down the request on the grounds that it would not meet in Belarus, as it was one of the staging posts for the Russian army’s invasion of Ukraine. However, by evening, Ukraine had changed its position and decided to take up the offer. This will not stop the fighting. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has assured Ukraine that the security of the delegation will be his responsibility. While the first meeting since the Russian offensive is a good sign, not much can be expected to come off it at a time when emotions are running high on both sides. Yet everyone watching the death and destruction and enormous misery of ordinary civilians will hope that talks would lead to an eventual ceasefire.
President Putin, a former spy chief, and a man not averse to taking risks may have overstretched his hand on ordering his military into Ukraine. Nobody is certain about the situation on the real situation on the ground, yet the progress of the Russian army has slowed down due to tough national resistance by Ukraine.
Putin’s calculations that Europe would be divided has been belied. All NATO allies have backed US President Joe Biden and have shown a united and steely resolve to deter Russia’s adventurism in Ukraine. Despite initial hesitation about excluding Russia from SWIFT, the global payments mechanism, Germany has fallen in line. What is more, Germany had also decided to increase its defence spending to 2 per cent of its GDP, something the US had tried for decades to do. In a way Putin’s efforts had helped to unite Europe solidly behind American leadership and strengthened the trans-Atlantic military alliance.
