The return of Trump in the White House has caused a lot of anxiety in many capitals. However, in New Delhi, there is comfort. PM Modi was among the first world leaders to talk to Trump after his victory and rekindle their friendship since Trump 1.0.
India would hope that after his swearing in, Trump would quickly agree to a Quad summit to be hosted in India in 2025.That would be a great achievement to have a US President visit India in his first year in office. It is recalled that India was to host the Quad summit in 2024 but deferred to the US and exchanged turns. If this happens quickly, it will show both a renewed Trump commitment to India and to the Quad and Indo-Pacific, which India attaches great importance to.
This will also reassure Japan and Australia about the Quad and the US attitude to the Indo Pacific.
There is an expectation that Trump will continue to be unpredictable and show turbulence in policy. An alternative analysis is that now he is a more mature politician with experience and will come with a more committed team, which may not see the frequent changes in senior positions as was seen in his first term. Who he chooses as his secretaries of state, defence, commerce, justice and labour and the NSA would be of great importance to India. The sooner they are appointed the better since in Trump 1.0 there were no official interlocutors outside the White House for some time.
Where the Indian diaspora is concerned, and its prime place in Indian policy, Trump is seen as being good to them and empathetic to their concerns. Therefore, his statements regarding Hindus and their persecution in places like Bangladesh have resonated well as have his Diwali greetings. Many PIOs in the US shifted from voting Democrat to voting for Trump this time. Pictures of Sikh voters gathering outside the White House as the results came in and dancing the bhangra to celebrate Trump were evocative
However, Trump's concerns on illegal immigration and keeping jobs for Americans could impact NRIs rather than PIOs. There have already been deportation flights from Central America to India under the Biden administration. If Trump lives up to his promise of expelling illegal immigrants, there could be many such expulsions from the US, which would strain engagement with India. Besides, restrictions on H1b visas, spouse visas and the like which were attempted in his first term would also impact Indian companies and their association with the US economy.
There is likely to be greater strategic coherence with Trump if he maintains his interest in the Indo-Pacific and continues to aim to restrain China, both of which are in India's interest. Similarly, giving primacy to India in South Asia, de- hyphenating the relationship with Pakistan and holding them to account, including for their close ties with China would help. Bangladesh is a sticky point where there is anxiety in India about what the Americans have been doing. Trump’s approach to this would be watched. Closer synchronization on Myanmar giving space to Indian security interests would be important too.
Ideally, India would like the US administration to consult and back its view of South Asia and how to deal with its neighbours, particularly to counter China.
It was during Trump's first term that the India-US 2+2 dialogue started, as was the designation of India as a Strategic Trade Authorized Tier 1 partner in 2018.This allowed export of dual-use defence-3891related technology with ease.
This is likely to continue, except being the transactional person that Trump is, he would expect more orders for Indian defence equipment. This has continued even under the Biden administration, and India would need to refocus and use these orders in a timely manner to keep the momentum of the relationship with Trump 2.0. The trend is clear. The leveraging of it will need to be handled carefully. Critically India needs Trump to provide transfers of technology in defence and clear delays in the GE414 engines for Tejas and pish for more such collaboration. Transactional relationships have two sides.
Finally, on trade. This remains a sticky point. Trump was tough on India on tariffs, and has said so on the campaign too. He removed the GSP preferences for India, which have never come back. However, India-US trade is growing,and India would like this to develop further. If Trump indulges in across the board import tariffs, it will impact important Indian exports, including pharmaceuticals. India would need to decide whether it will have retaliatory measures or persuade the US to participate in a new form of re globalization with resilient supply chains and trade arrangements. An FTA with the US seems unlikely under Trump, as it was under Biden.
India would need to be worried about the US commitment to international organizations like the WTO and other UN-related bodies for whom Trump seems to have disdain. This is where there's a divergence between India and the US, because as an emerging power, India needs an open and just international order and does not want its avenues shut down.
