The 2023 National League (NL) Cy Young Award race has seen its fair share of contenders, but perhaps none have caused as much intrigue as the San Diego Padres' left-handed pitcher, Blake Snell. Snell's performance this season has left baseball analysts scratching their heads, as he navigates a peculiar blend of dominance and unconventional statistics.
At 30, Snell is on the cusp of completing one of the most uniquely dominant and statistically extreme seasons by a pitcher in MLB history. On one hand, he leads the Majors with a remarkable 2.43 ERA, a stingy .186 opponents' batting average, and a minuscule .597 OPS against. With 217 strikeouts in 167 innings, there's no denying his prowess as one of the game's elite pitchers. However, the same season that shows his brilliance also features an astonishing 93 walks, positioning him as a pitcher who could potentially reach the 100-walk mark, a feat not seen since 2012.
There is no doubt that Snell has been remarkably effective this season, deserving consideration as one of the NL's best pitchers. What remains in question is the extent of his excellence and how he has defied traditional statistical expectations, especially with regards to his ERA.
Here are some standout metrics that underscore just how exceptional Snell's 2023 season has been:
- Snell could become the first AL/NL pitcher since 1913 to lead the Majors in both ERA and walks. His ERA sits 30 points ahead of the closest contender, Justin Steele (2.73), and he has 12 more walks than Charlie Morton (81).
- Snell boasts a staggering 13.4% walk rate, a feat achieved in only 173 seasons in MLB history where a pitcher had a walk rate above 13% in 150 or more innings. Remarkably, Snell's 169 ERA+ would top all those seasons, surpassing even Hal Newhouser's 162 ERA+ in the 1942 season.
- Snell would join an exclusive club, becoming only the second pitcher ever (first since Sam McDowell in 1966) with 200 or more strikeouts and 100-plus walks in a season in fewer than 200 innings if he can issue seven more walks this season.
- If Snell manages to clinch the Cy Young Award, he would be the first pitcher since Early Wynn in 1959 to lead the Majors in walks while securing the prestigious accolade.
The common thread in Snell's peculiar season is his high walk total. It is a daunting challenge to permit so many free passes and still achieve this level of success. Yet, Snell and the Padres appear to have embraced this aspect of his game. Snell differentiates between "good walks" and "bad walks," and rather than surrender hittable pitches, he is willing to issue walks and pitch his way out of trouble.
Snell's remarkable season has been characterized by high-strikeout, high-walk performances. He has succeeded because he is one of the most unhittable pitchers of the year. In the pitch-tracking era (since 2008), only three starters have achieved a higher single-season whiff rate (the percentage of swings that result in a miss) than Snell in 2023.
Blake Snell's 2023 season defies conventions, challenging the notion that walks are detrimental to a pitcher's success. Instead, Snell has made them a part of his unique profile, combining them with an ability to elicit swings and misses at an extraordinary rate. As the season unfolds, the baseball world remains captivated by Snell's unorthodox path to dominance and his potential to secure the prestigious Cy Young Award.
