A recent study has revealed that the Arctic may experience summer days with almost no sea ice within the next decade due to emissions resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels.
Scientists have warned that this shift would alter the distinctive habitat of polar bears, seals, and walruses, turning the summer Arctic from a "white Arctic" to a "blue Arctic." The term "ice-free" in this context indicates an area with less than 1 million square kilometers of ice, leaving the region predominantly covered by water.
The results, documented in the journal Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, indicate that the Arctic's first ice-free day might arrive more than a decade sooner than previously anticipated.
According to the authors, we can anticipate consistently ice-free Septembers in the Arctic between 2035 and 2067. The specific year within this range hinges on the pace at which the world reduces its consumption of fossil fuels.
By the century's end, there is a possibility of ice-free conditions occurring between May and January under a high-emission scenario, and from August to October under a low-emission scenario.
Alexandra Jahn, an associate professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder and one of the lead authors of the study, commented, “This would transform the Arctic into a completely different environment, from a white summer Arctic to a blue Arctic. So even if ice-free conditions are unavoidable, we still need to keep our emissions as low as possible to avoid prolonged ice-free conditions.”
However, there is potential to address this issue, she emphasized.
“Unlike the ice sheet in Greenland that took thousands of years to build, even if we melt all the Arctic sea ice, if we can then figure out how to take CO2 back out of the atmosphere in the future to reverse warming, sea ice will come back within a decade,” Jahn stated.
It's not just Arctic wildlife that will suffer as their habitat melts; coastal residents will also face challenges. Sea ice mitigates the impact of ocean waves on the coast, so its loss would lead to stronger, larger waves and increased erosion.
