Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections is god-sent for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoiling for a fight with Iran and the Israeli far-right pushing for more settlements on Palestinian land.
Netanyahu wants a regime change in Iran and the complete rollback of its nuclear program; failing that, a strike at Iran’s nuclear facility. That can only be done with US backing. However, will Trump oblige?
A full-blown Israel-Iran war may not be Trump’s cup of tea. After all he had repeatedly boasted during his election campaign that there were no wars during his four years in the White House, while a "weak" president like Joe Biden allowed two major wars under his watch. A month ago during the stand-off between Israel and Iran, Trump had asked Israel to hit Iran’s nuclear facility. However, as President, Trump is unlikely to risk an Israeli strike, knowing the consequence could be a full-blown war. But with Donald Trump, no one can be certain. Much will depend on the advisers he has around him. So far, little is known of his security team.
Donald Trump has said several times during his campaign that he had advised Netanyahu to do what he has to but to do the job quickly. Trump takes pride in the fact that he is not a warmonger and claims he will quickly bring the current wars in West Asia and Europe to an end. How he will do so has not been spelt out.
Netanyahu will be happy to see the last of President Biden. Though the world see’s Biden as Netanyahu’s greatest "enabler", Netanyahu’s equation with him is not great. Selective leaks from the White House have shown what Biden thinks of the Israeli leader. Over the last few weeks, the Biden White House has become decidedly tougher on Israel, demanding that Israel give access for humanitarian aid to flow into Gaza. Washington is also upset over Israel’s decision to ban the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) from Occupied West Bank and Gaza. The UNWRA has been in the region since 1949, sent in initially to care for the 700,000 Palestinians forced to flee their homes after the creation of Israel. The ban will be a death blow to Palestinian refugees and add to the ongoing humanitarian crisis. According to reports in the Western media, US secretary of state Antony Blinken and defence secretary Lloyd Austin have asked Israel to comply or face the consequences. In short, the threat is to stop the supply of weapons from the US that has enabled Israel to continue its bombing campaign in Gaza and Lebanon.
Now that the Biden Administration is on its way out, and the more sympathetic Trump is about to take office in January, Netanyahu may feel emboldened and ready to defy the lame duck administration.
Orthodox Jewish settlers who believe in the biblical promised land, will be encouraged to build more settlements and expand the frontiers of the state. This will be not just in the Gaza Strip but in the Occupied West Bank where armed settlers often with the help of the IDF have steadily taken over more and more Palestinian land.
It is unlikely that Trump will support the two-nation theory that envisions Israel living in peace side by side with a Palestinian state. That is the formulation of the Oslo accord to which most countries pay lip service. But so far there has been no serious effort at implementation. Netanyahu and many in Israel have rejected the two-nation solution. So, what next?
Is it a militarised Israel, occupying parts of Gaza and regularising settlements in the Occupied West Bank? That could be what Netanyahu and the orthodox religious parties who prop up his coalition want. Hamas leaders are dead and most of its cadres too are either dead or badly wounded; yet, the idea of freedom is not. Others will rise to take their place and Israel will continue to be at risk despite its military superiority.
The problem is that Netanyahu has not yet spelt out his plans for the future. Though there is broad support for the war in Gaza and Lebanon after the Hamas attack in October last year, many are asking what is the endgame? Can the remaining hostages ever be reunited with their families? They seem to have been forgotten by all but their loved ones in the euphoria of the military victory over Hamas, and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Biden administration was working on liberating the hostages, but have been unable to deliver. Neither Netanyahu nor what remains of Hamas negotiators are keen. Hamas naturally wants the release to be linked with a ceasefire.
Nothing is clear at the moment. For Palestinians, a Biden, a Trump or a Kamala Harris in the White House makes no difference. They know when push comes to shove, the US will side with Israel.
Every American administration has backed Israel, but it was during Trump’s first term that Washington shifted its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and gave a boost to Israel’s claim over the ancient city. Jerusalem is holy to both Jews and Christians.
Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law is an American Jew and his family is close to Netanyahu. Kushner a senior adviser in the former Trump White House, was the architect of the Abraham Accords. These agreements gave legitimacy to the state of Israel by establishing diplomatic and business ties with several Arab governments. The UAE and Bahrain were the first signatories to the agreements, followed by Morrocco and Sudan. All the accords were signed in 2020.
The idea was to build a new West Asia where Israel will have normal relations with its Arab neighbours. The icing in the cake was Saudi Arabia, the most important kingdom in the region as the custodian of Mecca and Medina the most sacred sites of Sunni Islam. While the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, was eager to be on board, his father King Salman was hesitant. But before more could be done, the Hamas attack changed the equation in the region. It would be difficult for Saudi Arabia to do normalise relations with Israel, unless Palestinians are given their due.
Donald Trump and Netanyahu would want the Arab rulers to forget Palestine and move forward. But since Israel’s war on Gaza and Lebanon, no Arab ruler can afford to ignore the plight of Palestinian.
