Tensions between North and South Korea have hit a boiling point after North Korea accused its southern neighbour of flying drones over Pyongyang, scattering leaflets filled with anti-regime propaganda. The North called the alleged drone flights a dangerous provocation, warning that the situation could spiral into "armed conflict and even war."
On Friday, North Korea announced it had placed its border troops on high alert, ready to fire at any perceived threat. In response, South Korea issued a stark warning, stating that if its citizens' safety was at risk, it could lead to the collapse of the North Korean regime. This back-and-forth escalation has sparked fears of a more serious conflict on the Korean peninsula.
Accusations from Pyongyang
The accusations from North Korea came to light on October 11, when Pyongyang claimed that South Korean drones had repeatedly flown over its capital at night for two weeks. According to the North, the drones dropped leaflets filled with "inflammatory rumours and rubbish," designed to incite unrest within the regime.
Kim Yo Jong, the influential sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, did not mince words. She warned the South of "horrible consequences" if the drone flights continued, claiming there was "clear evidence" that South Korea's military was behind the provocations.
North Korea even released blurry images purportedly showing the drones and the leaflets they allegedly dropped. However, independent verification of these claims is impossible. South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff initially denied the accusations, but later stated they could not conclusively confirm or deny the North's allegations. Some local reports suggest that the drones might have been sent by activists, not the government, who have long sent anti-regime materials into the North using balloons.
Military Posturing and Road Explosions
As tensions escalated, North Korea ramped up its military posture. On Tuesday, the North destroyed sections of two roads connecting it to South Korea—the Gyeongui and Donghae roads—following through on earlier threats. Although these roads have been closed for years, the explosions were seen as a symbolic message from Kim Jong Un: he has no interest in negotiations with Seoul.
Analysts believe this destruction underscores North Korea's unwillingness to engage in dialogue, further deepening the divide between the two countries. In response to the explosions, South Korea fired its own weapons near the border as a show of strength and raised its surveillance of the North.
The South's response was swift on other fronts too. Gyeonggi Province, which surrounds Seoul, declared 11 inter-Korean border areas "danger zones," prohibiting people from sending any leaflets toward North Korea. "This kind of act could trigger military conflict and endanger lives," said Kim Sung-joong, the province's vice governor. He added that the situation was rapidly worsening and urged caution.
A Strained Relationship
Experts say this latest flare-up is part of a broader strategy by North Korea to galvanise internal support by creating an external threat. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has increasingly distanced himself from the idea of reunification with the South, referring to it as a "separate state." This rhetoric is meant to reinforce the idea that the South is an enemy, allowing Kim to tighten control over his population by stoking fear of foreign attacks.
"The North Korean regime thrives on the politics of fear," explained Professor Kang Dong-wan, a political science expert from Dong-a University. "Whenever tensions rise, they use external threats to boost loyalty to the regime. The constant state of fear helps maintain control."
Kim's sister, Kim Yo Jong, has also been instrumental in escalating the rhetoric, serving as a key voice in the regime's more aggressive stance toward Seoul.
Despite the heated exchanges, most experts believe that a full-scale war is unlikely. Professor Kim Dong-yup, an expert on North Korean studies, noted that while both sides are engaging in a "game of chicken," neither is prepared to make concessions. "Neither Seoul nor Pyongyang wants to be the first to back down," he said.
However, he added that North Korea is well aware of the catastrophic consequences of starting a war, especially one that might draw in major powers like the United States and China. North Korea’s recent actions, such as the destruction of the roads, are likely aimed more at sending a political message than triggering a large-scale military conflict.
The Korean peninsula remains in a state of tension, technically still at war since the Korean War armistice in 1953. While reunification was once a central tenet of North Korea's ideology, Kim Jong Un has largely abandoned that goal, opting instead to build closer ties with Russia and maintain North Korea's strategic alliances with China.
In light of the drone incident, China's foreign ministry issued a cautious statement, calling on all parties "to avoid further escalation." China, North Korea's closest ally, has a vested interest in maintaining stability on the peninsula, as it borders both Koreas and has historically supported the North in times of crisis.
