Asif Ali Zardari – singled out by fate to become Benazir Bhutto's husbandand who, subsequently, did everything he could to prevent himself from beingreturned to obscurity – is about to become the new President of Pakistan.Oily-mouthed hangers-on, never in short supply in Pakistan, will orchestrate afew celebratory shows and the ready tongues of old cronies (some now appointedambassadors to western capitals) will speak of how democracy has been enhanced.Zardari's close circle of friends, with whom he shared the spoils of power thelast time around and who have remained loyal, refusing all inducements to turnstate's evidence in the corrruption cases against him, will also be delighted.Small wonder then that definitions of democracy in Pakistan differ from personto person. There will be no expressions of joy on the streets to mark thetransference of power from a moth-eaten general to a worm-eaten politician. Theaffection felt in some quarters for the Bhutto family is non-transferable. IfBenazir were still alive, Zardari would not have been given any official post.She had been considering two other senior politicians for the presidency. Hadshe been more democratically inclined she would never have treated her politicalparty so scornfully, reducing it to the status of a family heirloom, bequeathedto her son, with her husband as the regent till the boy came of age.
This, and this alone, has aided Zardari's rise to the top. He was disliked bymany of his wife's closest supporters in the People's Party (or the BhuttoFamily Party, as it is referred to by disaffected members) even when she wasalive. They blamed his greed and godfatherish behaviour to explain her fall frompower on two previous occasions, which I always thought was slightly unfair. Sheknew. It was a joint enterprise. She was never one to regard politics alone asthe consuming passion of her life and always envied the lifestyle and socialbehaviour of the very rich. And he was shameless in his endeavours to achievethat status.
Today, he is the second richest person in the country, with estates and bankaccounts littered on many continents, including a mansion in Surrey worthseveral million. Many of Benazir's inner circle, sidelined by the new boss (Zardaridid rub their noses in excrement by having his apolitical sister elected fromLarkana, hitherto a pocket borough of the Bhutto family) actively hate him.Benazir's uncle, Mumtaz Bhutto (head of the clan) has sharply denounced him.Some even encourage the grotesque view that he was in some way responsible forher death. This is foolish. He is only trying to fulfill her legacy. He wascertainly charged with ordering the murder of his brother-in-law, Murtaza Bhutto,when Benazir was prime minister, but the case was never tried.Characteristically, one of Zardari's first acts after his party's victory in theFebruary polls was to appoint Shoaib Suddle, the senior police officer connectedto the Murtaza Bhutto ambush and killing, as the boss of the FederalIntelligence Agency. Loyalty is always repaid in full.
In the country at large, his standing, always low, has sunk still further.The majority of Pakistan's 190 million citizens may be poor, illiterate orsemi-literate, but their instincts are usually sound. An opinion poll carriedout by the New America Foundation some months ago revealed Zardari's approvalratings at a low ebb – less than 14%. These figures confirm the view that heis the worst possible slice of Pakistan's crumbly nationhood. The people has hadno say in his election. parliamentary cabals have already determined the result.I do not take too seriously the recent revelation that a psychiatrist hadpronounced him suffering from acute dementia, incapable of recognising hischildren due to a chronic loss of memory. This was, as is known, designed forthe courtroom had he been prosecuted in London or Geneva for large-scalemoney-laundering and corruption. All that is in abeyance now, since he has beenelevated into a crucial figure in the "war on terror".
A small mystery remained. Why did the US suddenly withdraw support fromGeneral Musharraf? An answer was provided on August 26 by Helene Cooper and MarkMazzetti in the New York Times. The State Department, according to thisreport, was not in favour of an undignified and hasty departure, but unknown tothem a hardcore neocon faction led by Zalmay Khalilzad, the US ambassador to theSecurity Council, was busy advising Asif Zardari in secret and helping him planthe campaign to oust the general:
"Mr Khalilzad had spoken by telephone with Mr Zardari, the leader of thePakistan Peoples party, several times a week for the past month until he wasconfronted about the unauthorised contacts, a senior United States officialsaid, "Can I ask what sort of 'advice and help' you are providing?"… Mr. Boucher wrote in an angry email message to Mr Khalilzad. "What sortof channel is this? Governmental, private, personal?" Copies of the messagewere sent to others at the highest levels of the State Department; the messagewas provided to the New York Times by an administration official who hadreceived a copy."
Khalilzad is an inveterate factionalist and a master of intrigue. Havingimplanted Hamid Karzai in Kabul (with dire results as many in Washington nowadmit), he had been livid with Musharraf for refusing to give 100% support tohis Afghan protege. Khalilzad now saw an opportunity to punish Musharraf andsimultaneously try and create a Pakistani equivalent of Karzai.
Zardari fitted the bill. He is perfectly suited to being a total creature ofWashington. The Swiss government helpfully decided to release millions ofdollars from Zardari's bank accounts that had, till now, been frozen due to thepending corruption cases. Like his late wife, Zardari, too, is now beinglaundered, just like the money he made when last in office as minister forinvestment. This weakness will make him a pliant president of Pakistan.
The majority of the population is deeply hostile to the US/Nato presence inAfghanistan. Almost 80% favour a negotiated settlement and withdrawal of allforeign troops. Three days ago, a team of US commandos entered Pakistan "insearch of terrorists" and 20 innocents were killed. Zardari was beingtested. But if he permits US troops to enter the frontier province on"search-and-destroy" missions his career will be short-lived and themilitary will return in some shape or form. The High Command cannot afford toignore the growing anger within its junior ranks at being forced to kill theirown people.
The president of Pakistan was designed in the 1972 constitution as anornamental figure. Military dictators subverted and altered the constitution totheir advantage. Will Zardari revert to his late father-in-law's constitution orpreserve its existing powers?
The country desperately needs a president capable of exercising some moralauthority and serving as the conscience of the country. The banished chiefjustice, Iftikhar Chaudhry, automatically comes to mind, as do the figures ofImran Khan and IA Rehman (the chairman of the Human Rights Commission), but thegoverning elite and its self- serving backers in Washington have always beenblind to the real needs of this country. They should be careful. The sparksflying across the Afghan border might ignite a fire that is difficult tocontrol.
Tariq Ali's latest book, The Duel: Pakistan on the Flightpath of AmericanPower, will be published by Simon and Schuster on September 15
