It should not surprise anyone that I feel duty-bound, as a professor of economics, to draw upon my modestexpertise in neoclassical economics to look ahead, beyond the impending war against Iraq, and contribute tothe nation-building efforts in that benighted country as soon as we have finished destroying it.
About a hundred and fifty years back, Karl Marx had proclaimed that the British have a "dual mission"in India: they were there to destroy and rebuild Indian society. First, they must dismantle thosearchaic institutions that had produced centuries of barbarism and stagnation in India, blocking her progressto higher forms of economic organization. Once this historical debris had been removed, the British would laythe foundations of a civilized society, duly equipped with property rights, labor markets and an indigenousbourgeoisie. India would then be ready to join the civilized world as a near-equal of European nations.
India proved to be more refractory than Marx had anticipated. As a result, when the British left India,some two hundred years after they began their dual mission, it was hard to tell if they had completed or werestill completing the first phase of their mission. Judging from the average height of Indians, which hadshrunk by about a quarter of an inch between 1900 and 1950, it would appear that the British were stillengaged in downsizing India. In any case, no foreign or native observer could have made the mistake ofthinking that in 1947, the year of her independence, India was even close to laying claims of equality withthe Britain. If this was not bad enough, even before the British drew the curtain on their glorious rule, theIndians plunged into a great paroxysm of carnage, perhaps to demonstrate that they had reclaimed theircountry, and would run it according to native ideas of just governance. It was a great pity that theungrateful Indians had forced the departure of their British philosopher-guardians before their education wascomplete.
Once the sun set on the British Empire, their dual mission fell into neglect. Although the United Statesinherited the mantle of global power, it would not be free to exercise this power in the service of the dualmission. During this era of the Cold War, when the Soviets were busily seducing the poor huddled masses ofAsia, Africa and Latin America with dreams of socialist revolution, the greatest part of the energies of theCIA was spent returning these societies to the sober discipline of military dictatorships or absolutemonarchies. This was mostly a thankless task.
Opportunely, these adverse conditions changed in 1991 with the collapse of Soviet power. Once again, thehistorical conditions were appropriate for Western bourgeoisie to resume its dual mission, interrupted by theCold War, among the half-breeds of the Periphery. No sooner were the conditions ready than Iraq, the leastcivilized of the Arab states, offered United States the opportunity to launch the dual mission with greatfanfare, with nearly all the nations of the world in attendance. Yet, though United States was superblyendowed, it was not quite resolved to take upon itself the kinds of risks that attend all great undertakings.
There is not another region of the Periphery where the need for resuming the dual mission is stronger thanin the Fertile Crescent, still steeped in obscurantist obsessions and misogynist dreams. When the Britishgained control over this region in 1917, they understood that the time they had was too short to complete eventhe destructive phase of their dual mission. As a result, they decided to leave behind a surrogate - a Jewishstate in Palestine - who would continue to do their job long after their departure. Once this Crusader statewas on the ground, it could safely be trusted to complete the first phase of the dual mission, at least in theneighboring territories.
Israel has discharged its historic duties with serious purpose. But as these things go - and nothing inthis region happens in accordance with the natural laws of history - the insertion of Israel has created someproblems of its own. It has increased the recalcitrance of some Arab states who arrogantly and blindly presumethat they have the right to live by their own archaic laws and traditions, even if this obstructs the forwardmarch of history. It is imperative that these unnatural states should be destroyed.
Although Iraq offered this opportunity as early as 1990, United States was not yet ready to embark on itsdual mission. It was still burdened by painful memories of its failed dual mission in Vietnam, which despitemassive efforts had reverted to the primitivism of communal ownership and social equality. As a result, afterdislodging the Iraqi barbarians from our oil fields in Kuwait, the United States lost nerve. Itdeclared victory, and shrank back from the much greater task of launching the dual mission in Iraq and therest of the region.
It is time now for the Son to atone for the sins of the Father. The Son stands at the head of a coalition -consisting of Zionists, apocalyptic Christians, and assorted corporate interests - that is ready and resolvedto renew the dual mission, starting with Iraq, and then moving to Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Libya andPakistan. There is so much destructive work that needs to be executed in these countries; the backlog has beenbuilding up for quite some time.
It is of the utmost importance to note that the new dual mission promises to be different. When the Britishand French initiated the destructive phase of their dual mission some two hundred years ago, their workproceeded slowly, since their firepower was not sufficiently developed at the time. It took the French nearly50 years, from 1820 to 1870, to kill half the population of Algeria. The British faced a more difficult taskin India; they simply did not have the firepower to terminate half their population. As a result, they put inplace a variety of policies that would produce an abundant harvest of famines, managing to kill off millions.Still, their kill rate was too slow to match the French record in Algeria.
The new dual mission led by the Bush-Blair crew can finish its demolition job much faster. The destructionwhich the British and French took decades to accomplish can now be completed in mere days, even hours. Indeed,if the Bush-Blair crew were not moved by humanitarian concerns, they could depopulate all of Iraq in a fewminutes. This would have the further advantage of converting the dual mission into a "singular" mission,since there would be no rebuilding to do, at least for a couple of hundred years. Instead, they plan toimplement a strategy of "shock and awe," which depends on the simultaneous launch of hundreds of cruisemissiles to produce the effect of the Hiroshima bomb without producing its human casualties. As the Iraqiswatch the missiles coming in, they will be seized with mind-blowing awe, a sight they will treasure for therest of their shortened lives. And when the missiles hit their targets with pin-point accuracy, exploding intoa thousand infernos, the Iraqi awe will swiftly be converted into shock.
The Iraqis who survive their ordeal of "shock and awe" will, of course, quickly queue up for surrenderto American tanks, drones, robots, or anything American that moves. Once the rites of surrender have beencompleted - and televised to prime-time American audiences - the Iraqis can return to their homes, if thesehaven’t been reduced to rubble, and wait with baited breath, but without water and electricity, for thesecond phase of the dual mission, for the benefits of peace and democracy to start pouring in. I suspect thatthe wait may be long.
Historians of technology will tell you that technology rarely advances at the same rate on all fronts.Thus, while the technology for completing the destructive phase of the dual mission has made impressiveprogress in the past decades, the rebuilding technology has yet to catch up. At the press of a few buttons onships stationed thousands of miles away, all the power stations, bridges, sewage treatment plants, and waterpurification plants in Iraq - those that survived the first Gulf War - can be dismantled simultaneously,almost instantly, beyond recovery. On the other hand, we are still a long way from inventing automated plantswhich can build power stations, bridges, sewage treatment plants, and water purification plants at the pressof a button. The Pentagon has commissioned MIT and Stanford University to design robots that will be able torebuild a country’s civilian infrastructure from the rubble of those that are destroyed by cruise missiles.
There is a further problem. Rebuilding of the slow kind requires money - tens of billions of dollars -given the dramatic success with which we are likely to execute the first phase of the dual mission. Where willthis come from at a time of rapidly escalating budget deficits, when the demands of the rich for tax cuts havenot yet been fully satisfied? There will be many in the administration who will be tempted to revise theirthinking on the dual mission. "If we can be so effective in the first phase, do we need to undertake thesecond phase?" Under the circumstances, it is doubtful that any money will be quickly forthcoming. We cannotcount on oil revenues either, since Saddam may choose to go down in a blaze - the blaze of the burning oilfields. And if we turn to our allies, they are likely to decline. Most likely, they will say, "This dualmission is yours, Imperial Highness, not ours."
Where will the Americans find the money to start rebuilding the new, free, democratic, post-war Iraq? Wecould, of course, draw down the nearly $5 billion in economic and military assistance we have provided toIsrael for several decades now, especially since a democratic Iraq will have eliminated the imminent perilfrom Iraq’s yet-to-be-developed nuclear arsenal. But perish the thought! A Congressman proposing tosacrifice that sacred cow would instantly put his political career in jeopardy. Thankfully, we do nothave to take recourse to any radical measures. The rebuilding of Iraq can begin without offending Israel.
The solution to our predicament comes from neoclassical economics, such as our better undergraduates ineconomics are expected to master before they graduate from college. Let me explain, drawing upon my modestexpertise in economics, how the time-tested principles of neoclassical economics can be employed to rescueIraq’s post phase-one economy. Our bright senior in economics knows, a la Heckscher-Ohlin theory ofinternational trade, that a country’s comparative advantage lies in making the best use of its most abundantresources. When their markets are left free, every country will - and should - export products which make themost intensive use of their abundant resources. All that we need to do then is to review quickly the mostabundant resources that are likely to become available in post-war Iraq. It is an ill wind that blows no good.It is, therefore, unlikely that the most high-tech war that is about to be unleashed on Iraq will fail tocreate some quite lucrative opportunities for Iraqi entrepreneurs. The first place to look for theseopportunities is in the rubble of post-war Iraq.
Improbable as this may sound, Iraqis are likely to find their most valuable opportunities in the bombed-outsites, both military and civilian. I think I am not being unrealistic when I assume that United States will begenerous - maybe, even to a fault - in dispatching its arsenal to chosen targets. Almost certainly, thedispatched arsenal will include daisy-cutters, micro-wave bombs, cruise missiles, and anti-tank artilleryshells laced with depleted uranium. As a result, once the war is over, we can reasonably expect that Iraq willpossess an abundant supply of empty warheads, precision-guidance systems, and other assorted bomb and missileparts. The post-war government in Iraq should assign its best engineers to collect, grade, and recondition itswar debris for export. In order to prevent this lethal material from falling into the wrong hands - such asthe two remaining members of the axis of evil - I am quite sure that the United States military will be eagerto snap up the Iraqi exports.
A second potent source of post-war opportunities will be presented by the human casualties of the war.According to one UN estimate more than 1.3 million Iraqi children under the age of five will be at risk ofdeath from starvation during and after the war. If we assume that 10 percent of these children die in theimmediate aftermath of the war - a fairly conservative estimate - they can serve as an invaluable source forbody parts. I recommend that the US Agency for International Development (USAID) should make arrangements todeliver thousands of refrigerators to all parts of Iraq to ensure that the children can be refrigerated assoon as they die. Once this program comes into operation, no American children have to die needlessly becauseof unavailability of fresh body parts.
War tourism offers a third set of opportunities for Iraq. I admit it is a new concept, but that should notprevent the Ministry of Tourism in Iraq from exploring its potential for generating export revenues. I do notdoubt that once the war is over, there will be a considerable interest in the capitals of most Third Worldcountries, and especially the Arab countries, to evaluate the magnitude of the damage that the Americans arecapable of inflicting at short notice on any country. The first cohort of war tourists will consist of theheads of states, their ministers, generals, wives, and other hangers-on. Imagine the sobering effect thistourism will have on these visitors. I am sure that the whipping-boy theorists of the Iraq war will stronglysupport this new tourism, and they might even persuade the Pentagon to subsidize this cost-effective way ofpromoting US hegemony. Perhaps the officials of France, Germany and Belgium should also be invited to jointhis tourist crowd.
I will list one more opportunity that the war is almost certain to create: making commercial use of thedepleted uranium that left behind by American artillery. According to a scientific paper in the IraqiJournal of Medicine (Spring 1995), several Iraqi hospitals reported sudden elevations in the rates ofcancer remission - even in advanced cases - in the months following the first Gulf War. Upon investigation,the scientists found that all these hospitals were located in areas that were close to the scenes of battles,and enjoyed very high levels of radiation left from the use of depleted uranium shells by the US military. TheIraqi Ministry of Health should capitalize upon this finding, and invite multinationals to set up cancertreatment facilities to take advantage of the high levels of uranium radiation that is sure to be gifted toIraq by the new war. It is important, however, that these multinationals use only the local doctors and nursesto staff these facilities.
I am sure that if I gave my economic thoughts freer rein, I could come up with several additional ways offinding economic opportunities in the wreckage of the Iraqi economy, the debris of dams and powerplants, themaiming and mutilation of the Iraqi people. The modest proposals that I have offered should demonstrate to theIraqi people that they should not despair at the thought that the constructive phase of America’s dualmission in Iraq may be stalled by burning oil fields, the need to provide additional tax breaks to the richestAmericans, or the growing budget deficit. They can start rebuilding their economy from the wreckage of waritself. And for this they should be eternally grateful to Americans far having advanced the arts of war to thepoint where they sow seeds of hope in the midst of destruction. No Jhengiz, no Halaku, no Attila, noTamburlane ever offered half as much to mankind.
M. Shahid Alam is Professor of Economics at Northeastern University.His last book, Poverty from the Wealth of Nations, was published by Palgrave in 2000. © M. Shahid Alam
