There are indications of a more assertive policy by India in Arunachal Pradesh. Thesehave come in the wake of disappointment and concern in New Delhi over the failure of theborder talks between the Special Representatives of the two Prime Ministers to makeprogress mainly because of what India considers as the adamant Chinese claim to ArunachalPradesh.
While Chinese officials have given no inkling of any willingness on their part todilute this demand, non-governmental Chinese experts have been hinting for over a year nowthat China might be inclined to dilute this demand if India agreed to transfer thepopulated area of Tawang to China in return for China giving up its claim to the rest ofArunachal Pradesh.
When Prime Minister Wen Jiabo visited New Delhi in April, 2005, the two Prime Ministershad agreed that any border settlement should not affect populated areas. Indian hopes thatthis probably presaged a Chinese willingness to give up their claim to the Tawang Tracthave since been belied. The Chinese have gone back on this agreement and have beeninsisting on the transfer of Tawang to China despite its being a populated area.
India has also been concerned over the perceived Chinese reluctance to make a de jurerenunciation of their past position challenging Indian sovereignty over Sikkim. When ShriAtal Behari Vajpayee was the Prime Minister, the Chinese had stated that Sikkim was nolonger an issue affecting Sino-Indian relations. Indian assessment that this probablypresaged a de jure recognition by China that Sikkim is an integral part of India has beenbelied so far. Reported protests by China last year over Indian troop deployments in thearea and over the alleged construction of some structures by the Indian Army in Indianterritory in Sikkim have given rise to legitimate concerns that just as they went back ontheir commitment relating to non-transfer of populated areas, they are preparing theground for going back on their acceptance of the status quo in Sikkim. They are apparentlywanting to link Sikkim to Arunachal Pradesh, that is, making their acceptance of thestatus quo in Sikkim conditional on India agreeing to transfer the Tawang Tract to China.
India's premature gesture to China in the past in formally accepting Tibet as an integralpart of China without insisting on a quid pro quo by China in the form of accepting thestatus quo in Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh has left India without any cards in itsnegotiations with China. In its over-anxiety to maintain good relations with China, Indiahas been making one gesture after another to China without any of these gestures beingreciprocated by Beijing.
India's unilateral recognition of Tibet as an integral part of China has come in the wayof India's expressing concerns or protesting over Chinese activities in Tibet such asstrengthening the infrastructure not only in interior Tibet, but also in areas adjacent tothe border and extending its well-developed rail and road links to the border areas. Thereis also a talk of extending them into Nepal at the request of the Nepalese authorities.How can India protest over Chinese activities of military significance in Tibet when Indiaitself has recognised it as Chinese territory?
China, on the other hand, by not recognising Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh as Indianterritory, has reserved to itself the right to protest over Indian activities in theseareas such as construction of defensive structures in Indian territory in Sikkim, thevisit of Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, to Arunachal Pradesh on January 31 andFebruary 1,2008, etc -- the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister to this area in twodecades after the last visit by the late Rajiv Gandhi. India had even refrained fromstrengthening the road and other infrastructure in the Arunachal Pradesh area to match theChinese infrastructure in Tibet, partly due to concerns that this could create tensions inthe bilateral relations at a time when the economic relations between the two countrieswere improving and when the Special Representatives of the two Prime Ministers werediscussing the border issue and partly due to misgivings that the road links constructedby India might be used by the Chinese Army in the event of another military confrontationbetween the two countries as had happened in 1962.
Concerned over the persistent Chinese claim to Arunachal Pradesh, its going-back on thepast agreement between the two countries to find a solution to the border problem whichwould not involve any transfer of populated areas and the more activist policy of theChinese Army across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and across the Sino-Bhutanese border,India has belatedly realised that it cannot bank on China's good intentions whileformulating its border management policies in this region. Though belated, there is now awelcome realisation that the time has come for India to be more active and assertive inthis region and to undertake a crash programme for strengthening the road and otherinfrastructure in Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh. During his visit to Sikkim in Decemberlast year, Shri A.K.Antony, the Defence Minister, had announced a crash programme forstrengthening the infrastructure in the Sikkim region. A similar programme for ArunachalPradesh has now been announced by the Prime Minister.
During his visit to Arunachal Pradesh, he announced the intention ofthe government to spend Rs.10,000 crores on the development of the area and laid thefoundation stone for six of these projects. More than a half of this amount (Rs.5,500crores) is to be spent on the construction of a trans-Arunachal Pradesh Highway connectingTawang with Mahadevpur and the construction of a four-lane highway to Itanagar, thecapital of the State. Even though the Prime Minister did not visit Tawang, apparently indeference to the Chinese sensitivities on the issue of its future, his announcement of theplan to construct a highway to Tawang hopefully underlined the government's determinationnot to give in to the Chinese demand for the transfer of the Tawang Tract to China.
The projects for which he laid the foundation stone were for the construction of a 3000 MWhydro-electric power station at Dibang--which, when completed, will be India's biggesthydel station--and a 110 MW power station at Pare, the construction of a new Secretariatbuilding at Itanagar to house the offices of the Arunachal Pradesh government, theconstruction of a 45-km railway line between Itanagar and Harmuti in Assam and watersupply projects at Itanagar and Naharlagun. He also announced plans for a daily helicopterservice between Tawang and Guwahati, the capital of Assam, a new airport at Itanagar andimprovement of the airfields at Pasighat, Along, Daporijo, Ziro and Tezu. The announcementof the decision to undertake these projects will convey a clear message to the Chinesethat India is not prepared to accept Chinese claims to any part of this territory.
The Prime Minister also said at Itanagar: "Arunachal Pradesh is the easternmost stateof our country and the sun kisses the country here first. That is why for the country, itis the land of the rising sun. Arunachal Pradesh was a favourite of two of our belovedleaders--Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi. If Indira Gandhi created Arunachal Pradesh, Rajivgranted statehood to it." The infrastructure projects for the strengthening of theroad, rail and air connectivity between Arunachal Pradesh and the rest of the North-Eastwould not only benefit the people of the state, but would also strengthen the capabilityof the Army to defend this territory in the event of any future confrontation with China.Equally significant has been the posting of Gen.J.J.Singh, who retired as the Chief of theArmy Staff towards the end of last year, as the Governor of Arunachal Pradesh.
While the new assertiveness displayed by the Prime Minister is to be welcomed, the mostimportant thing is to ensure a rapid implementation of the various projects announced byhim. The experience of the people of the North-East has been that the grandiose plans foreconomic development and the strengthening of infrastructure announced by visiting PrimeMinisters had remained either unimplemented or inadequately implemented with enormousdelays in implementation. One had seen this repeatedly happen in Nagaland and Mizoram. Wejust cannot afford to let this happen in Arunachal Pradesh. It is hoped that the formerCOAS, who is now the Governor and who will understand the importance of infrastructurematching that of the Chinese in Tibet, will not let this happen and will push theseprojects through.
The Chinese reactions to the Prime Minister's visit and statementsin Arunachal Pradesh have come in two phases. In the first phase, there was no officialreaction either in the government-controlled media or from government spokesmen. Theinitial reactions were mainly from ostensibly non-governmental analysts with close linkswith the Chinese government. Sun Shihai, Deputy Director at the state-run think-tank,Institute of Asia Pacific Studies, was quoted by the media as saying as follows:
"The two countries will continue with the border negotiations with the help ofspecial representatives. Both sides must maintain calm and not arouse nationalistsentiments in order to create proper environment for the settlement of the problem.Arunachal Pradesh is a disputed area. This is why we have negotiations. If there was nodispute, we would not have had negotiations. Manmohan Singh is viewed in China as anhonest man who could be relied upon for settling the border dispute and taking theSino-Indian relationship to greater heights. I do not think Prime Minister Singh wastrying to connect his visit to China (in mid-January,2008) to his trip to ArunachalPradesh. I am sure he sees them differently. Domestic politics should not come in the wayof settling the border dispute. But sometimes politicians and the media may try to relatedomestic politics with international relationships. Yes, this issue about populated areasis one of the clauses of the 2005 agreement. But that [my comment: China's agreeing in2005 to the clause about non-transfer of populated areas] does not mean China haschanged its stand on Arunachal Pradesh."
What he apparently meant to convey was that the earlier Chinese agreement not to insiston the transfer of populated areas did not apply to Arunachal Pradesh, which was a standalone case not affected by the 2005 agreement.
Subsequently, a week after the Prime Minister's visit, an unidentified middle-levelofficial of the Chinese Foreign Office was reported to have told an interlocutor in theIndian Embassy in Beijing that the Prime Minister's visit to Arunachal Pradesh and hisstatements there were inappropriate at a time when the Special Representatives of the twoPrime Ministers were trying to find a solution to the problem. Though some sections of theIndian media projected it as an official Chinese protest, it was not. It was a verbal,somewhat low-key expression of unhappiness without letting it create an unnecessary cloudin the bilateral relations and spoil the feel good feeling after the recent visit of thePrime Minister to China.
It would appear that the Chinese themselves did not make an official disclosure of thisverbal communication of their unhappiness. One got the impression that this was leaked outat New Delhi. Shri Pranab Mukherjee, India's Minister for External Affairs, came out withforthright remarks in response to queries from the media about the reported Chineseunhappiness. He was quoted by the media as saying as follows:
"Arunachal Pradesh is an integral part of our country. We are having regularrepresentation in our Parliament elected by people of Arunachal. Therefore, it is obviousthat the Prime Minister will visit any part of the country."
China has not yet reacted officially to a report carried by the India Today(February 11,2008) about India agreeing to let a team from the US search for the remainsof some US Air Force personnel, who went missing in action in the Arunachal Pradesh areaduring the Second World War. According to the journal, the Intelligence Bureau hadobjected to it on the ground that under the existing policy, foreigners are not allowed tovisit Arunachal Pradesh, but its objection was over-ruled and a special exception was madeto facilitate the American search. It is intriguing that this issue should have come upafter so many years at this time when the future of this area has become a matter ofincreasing concern to India. The Chinese are likely to see an ominous significance tothis.
B. Raman is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, NewDelhi,and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is alsoassociated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies
