Consider the knock-on effect. A victory in Gujarat further strengthens L.K. Advani’s grip on the party. Friends and supporters of the prime minister (indeed he himself) have been eagerly awaiting an electoral debacle in Gujarat. "The old man gives his opponents a long rope. He is a patient man who bides his time," they declare. Perhaps, but I am afraid the dice is loaded against him for no fault of his own. A triumphant Advani will claim with some justification that his much-maligned choice of Narendra Modi has been vindicated. General elections are likely to be advanced by a year and the strategy for fighting these will doubtless be the exclusive domain of Mr Advani. In the changed scenario, Mr Vajpayee’s famously moderate line and pleas for "raj dharma" would be irrelevant. The deputy PM is too seasoned a politician and too crafty a tactician to jettison the Vajpayee line publicly. However, we can expect hard Hindutva politics on the ground.
The Congress’ only hope is to pray that Gujarat is a "special case". The BJP’s manifest corruption and misgovernance, combined with the deliberate communal polarisation, should have had considerable resonance among the electorate, and in normal times would mean ignominious defeat for the party. Alas, we don’t live in normal times.
