A crucial 17 per cent of the votes and, how they get divided among key players, will play an important role in West Bengal’s poll results. This was BJP’s voteshare in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls in Bengal and it came when many in Bengal, like elsewhere, were rooting for Narendra Modi. The alarming increase in the BJP’s voteshare—where it had never managed to get over four-six per cent since the 1980s—had come as a surprise. The only other time its voteshare had shown a significant rise was in 1991, when the Ramjanambhoomi movement allowed it to reap about 11 per cent in Bengal.
What, however, had stunned people about the 2014 results in Bengal was that the voteshare was translated in terms of assembly segments. The BJP won just two Lok Sabha seats, Darjeeling and Asansol. But the analysis showed BJP leading in 22 assembly seats and in second position in 11 more constituencies. Since then, Modi’s popularity in Bengal has dwindled. But by how much and, if so, who will benefit from the BJP’s reduced share, is the question.
There are a variety of reasons for Modi’s waning popularity. The prime minister is caught in the horns of a similar dilemma that plagued the Congress for years in Bengal. He is not quite sure whether Mamata Banerjee should be treated as a potential ally, or as an adversary. The Congress needed the support of the Left on crucial issues and in Parliament and so, for years, the Congress’s fight against the Left Front in Bengal remained a ‘friendly fight’.
Also, contrary to expectations generated in 2014, no major central projects were announced for the state. The Tatas did not return to Singur, nor were the Centre’s purse-strings loosened for special funds and job creation. On the other hand, popular and articulate BJP MP Babul Supriyo was sidelined and replaced by those like Dilip Ghosh, an RSS nominee, as the party’s face in the state.
However, the BJP has a political compulsion to put up a show of fighting the ruling party and that is why it is believed to have initiated the Narada sting operation that caught a number of Trinamool leaders accepting money on camera. The sting has unsettled Mamata to some extent. And if she returns with a reduced margin, her dependence on Modi will increase. But the ‘friendly fight’ that Modi is engaged in with Mamata is now clear to most in Bengal. Thus, in all likelihood, the BJP will go back to its 4-6 per cent voteshare. The main beneficiaries of its 2014 gains may then be the Left-Congress alliance.
