As Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on his fifth visit to the state as PM, waxes eloquent at an election rally in Kishtwar, a middle-aged man in the crowd quips, “Someone should tell him that Kishtwar is not in Kashmir; it’s a part of Jammu.” Former CM, Jammu native and Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad would concur. He claims that ‘outsiders’ were a majority in the crowd before Modi. “The honourable PM should have been told he was in Jammu. It seemed he was addressing people in Kashmir,” he adds.
As Kashmir-based parties hog headlines, a political identity crisis plagues Jammu’s people. They feel further aggrieved that the discourse on the Kashmir conflict has remained Kashmir-centric, thus taking Jammu and Ladakh for granted. Jammu’s discontent over political neglect—real or assumed—led to a number of commissions, including the Gajendragadkar Commission and the Sikri Commission, to look into charges of discrimination.
Demographically speaking, the 37 assembly constituencies in Jammu are less homogeneous than popularly believed. Jammu, Samba, Kathua, Udhampur and Reasi are predominantly Hindu districts, whereas Poonch and Rajouri are Muslim majority areas. Doda, Kishtwar and Ramban have a Muslim majority, with Hindus forming a substantial minority.
The BJP has been trying vigorously to woo all sections before the assembly elections. It has gone soft on the prickly issue of Article 370, with the PM making no mention of it, even as other leaders ask for a debate on it. “Article 370 is a national issue and the people will decide whether it has benefited them or not,” Rajnath Singh asserted at Bhaderwah.
During the 2008 polls, the BJP’s 16-point manifesto had focused largely on the alleged discrimination against the ‘Hindu majority’ Jammu region at the hands of ‘Kashmiri’ rulers. While the region’s demography remains unchanged, the BJP is no longer harping on Hindu aspirations. Yet, its new tactics can’t be considered failsafe, for despite a strong Modi wave, most of its candidates are lightweight. The party has given a ticket to two-time Congress MP, Choudhary Lal Singh, who joined the party in August. In the past, Choudhary is known to have taunted Modi thus: “How can you compare Rahul Gandhi with Modi? One is a king and the other is a tea-seller! Even when we buy a dog, we check its breed and lineage first.... How can we have a leader whose background is unknown?” One such video that has gone viral on social media has left the party and the leader red-faced. Can J&K’s citizens identify the state BJP with Modi, like in Haryana? The answer is going to define the politics of the trouble-torn state.
Though the BJP won 11 seats in 2008—its best performance in the state—it had to expel six MLAs for defying the party whip and cross-voting in the legislative council elections. This time, the party hasn’t given tickets to seven sitting MLAs including legislature party leader Ashok Khajuria.
“In Jammu, a feeling of political neglect persists since the early ‘50s due to Kashmir-centric politics...,” says Bharat Bhushan, a senior citizen. “Even though the BJP doesn’t have strong leaders in Jammu and Kashmir, the party can spring a surprise with Modi magic,” he says.
“It is a historic election.... Though it may seem a tactical move, the BJP’s change of stance on Article 370 will change the course of politics and will have larger implications for national politics....,” feels Pushkar Raj, a long-time observer of Kashmir politics.
“The regional discontent came to a head during the Amarnath agitation and it was in that surcharged atmosphere in 2008 that the BJP won its 11 seats. But that was not Jammu’s natural response to the party. In 2002, it had only one seat,” says political commentator Rekha Choudhary. “The reflection of the Modi wave is visible in Jammu and the party is going to perform better as compared to previous elections. Even though the BJP knows it will not get to its ‘Mission 44’, it will definitely influence government formation,” she adds. Parties such as the NC, PDP and Congress can no longer afford to be region-specific, says Choudhary. “Every party is contesting on the promise of good governance. That’s the nicest thing about these elections,” she says.
On the other hand, both NC and Congress failed to win a single Lok Sabha seat and have been facing anti-incumbency. The bitterness between NC and Congress also spilt out in the open with the dramatic resignation of Congress minister Sham Lal Sharma just a few hours before the announcement of elections. He went on to raise a question that, for a Congressman, was strange: why can’t a Hindu be a CM of the state?
In its manifesto, the Congress has again promised the setting up of a delimitation commission, two separate regional councils for Jammu and Kashmir, besides strengthening the panchayati raj system. It promises to create jobs, and accord priority to the rehabilitation of the flood-affected. It also reiterates its resolve to pay attention to issues of refugees, Kashmiri Pandits, SC-STs and economic empowerment of women.
While Jammu has in the past preferred national parties to regional ones and the Congress to the BJP, the Congress does seem to be on the backfoot, feels Choudhary. But can one really write off the Congress, NC and PDP in Jammu, where other smaller parties and independent candidates might queer the pitch?
By Ashutosh Sharma in Jammu
