Shortly after the results of the Haryana assembly polls trickled in, large banners with slogans of "Haryana toh jhaaki hai, Maharashtra abhi baaki hai (Haryana is a trailer, victory in Maharashtra is yet to be claimed)" cropped up in Mumbai.
The two states might be poles apart, separated by hundreds of miles. But the Bhartiya Janata Party’s third consecutive victory and Congress’s unexpected loss has spawned ripple effects in the poll-bound state of Maharashtra.
Elated BJP workers erupted in jubilant celebrations at the state headquarters at Nariman Point in Mumbai, where standing in front of the banner, Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis declared: “What happened in Haryana will be repeated in Maharashtra in November.” The victory in Haryana has given an immense boost to the party workers who are gearing up to dash the hopes of the Congress party in the state, he said.
Fadnavis recalled his words after BJP’s dismal performance in the Loksabha elections, that the party was not defeated by political rivals but lost to the ‘fake narrative’ dispersed by the Congress and INDI alliance parties. The Haryana result was a solid response to the fake narrative with a thet (direct) narrative, he said.
At a short distance from there, at the Rajiv Gandhi Bhavan near Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus, Congress leader Ramesh Chennithala, in charge of Maharashtra elections, downplayed any adverse effect of Haryana’s results on Maharashtra. Admitting to the infighting between Jat leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Dalit leader Kumari Selja, Chennithala said, there was no such conflict in Maharashtra. “The party workers and leaders are united and have no difference of opinion. We only have one aim to bring down this corrupt government,” he said.
Sanjay Raut, leader of Shiv Sena Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray faction, blamed Congress’s loss on its overconfidence and refusal to ally with smaller parties. “In Haryana, we could not form an INDI alliance because Congress was confident of its victory on its strength and did not want to share power with allies. If they had given tickets to our allies like Samajwadi and AAP, it would have changed the final result.”
The outcome of Haryana’s polls is increasingly being seen as a precursor to the oncoming elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, likely in November.
The BJP-led alliance has been in power in Maharashtra since 2014. The party along with its allies Shiv Sena (CM Eknath Shinde faction) and NCP (deputy CM Ajit Paway faction) is in a tiff competition with the Congress-led Mahayuti alliance with Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray Shiv Sena and Sharad Pawar’s NCP faction.
BJP’s consolidation of non-Jat votes in Haryana and exploitation of OBC and Dalit votes through a slew of welfare schemes, worked in its favour to win the third term.
Can the BJP pull a similar trick in Maharashtra by balancing caste equations between Maratha and OBC votes?
Political expert Ganesh Kanate refutes such comparisons. Jats and Marathas are the politically dominant castes of Haryana and Maharashtra, but in terms of caste calculations, the two are different. “Each leader and constituency has different factors that could influence the votes. There are many layers to the Maratha, OBC and Dalit votes. They are fragmented and their voting patterns differ according to the region where they are dominant,” he says. “The BJP has the support of Upper caste Brahmin and the creamy layer of Maratha and OBC, but other communities and deprived sections of Marathas and OBC will gravitate towards Sharad Pawar’s NCP and Thackeray’s Shiv Sena.”
But it is unlikely to change the ground situation, where the MVA coalition has an upper hand. The BJP does not have much to show to voters in terms of achievement. It is going to the polls based on its flagship Ladki Bahin (beloved sister) scheme and Hindutva/ religious polarisation, he said.
The Haryana results, Kanate feels, have added vigour in BJP cadres and the party will use this moment to assert itself. “BJP’s negotiation power has gone up and it will cut its allies (Shinde and Ajit Pawar faction) to size in seat sharing. BJP will not settle for anything less than 150 seats.”
With the political parties entering the last phase of hectic negotiations on seat-sharing agreements and ticket distribution before the announcement of poll dates, many leaders from the ruling coalition are making a last-minute switch to Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray factions.
The ruling Mahayuti coalition and the opposition Mahavikas are expected to release the first list of candidates by Saturday on the day of the Dusshera festival.
Congress spokesperson Atul Londhe blamed the party’s loss in Haryana on EVM manipulation. He told Outlook that the party has learned its lesson and will guard utmost caution during the voting phase to ensure Haryana-like situation is not repeated in Maharashtra. “We will work on strengthening its management of cadres. In terms of seat sharing, we have a good understanding with alliance partners to nominate those candidates who have the maximum chance of winning.
