Simmering discontent in the Congress, an aggressive Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), ‘conspiratorial cabals’ of the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and a whiff of revolt in the largely-missing BJP—the battle for Punjab has become as colourful as its famous Phulkari and as potent as the Patiala peg.
While wisecracks by Navjot Singh Sidhu and Bhagwant Mann have livened up the political landscape with their irreverent swipes against their opponents, contenders like General J.J. Singh and Sukhbir Singh Badal are scraping the wounds of militancy and Operation Bluestar, when army tanks rolled into Amritsar’s Golden Temple with Congress at the helm. The green-and-yellow mustard fields of Punjab have certainly not witnessed this kind of a three-way election before. With polling scheduled on February 4, all the parties are preparing for the last-mile dash.
Sensing an anti-incumbency mood against the Akali government, AAP is going all guns blazing, raising the issues of rampant drug abuse and corruption in the state. Party chief Arvind Kejriwal has pulled out all the stops to expand his footprint beyond Delhi and consolidate AAP’s position in the Punjab electoral landscape, where the party won four of the 13 Lok Sabha seats in 2014—its very first general election. AAP is targeting four lakh voters every day in an extensive door-to-door campaign, focusing on the Malwa belt, making it perhaps the most decisive factor in the elections. And yet the Badals of the ruling SAD, having latched on to the insider (Punjabi) versus the outsider (Haryanvi) narrative to corner AAP, have dubbed him “an outsider and an opportunist” flirting with pro-Khalistan elements. From the Punjabi Suba plank to the Sutlej-Yamuna Link canal, the Akalis are raking up all possible issues that divide Punjabis from Haryanvis.
Invoking Punjabi pride, Akali Dal MP Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa tells Outlook that “Punjabis fought for a separate Punjabi Suba, so they will never tolerate an outsider, and that too a Haryanvi, as their chief minister.” Even though Kejriwal had dismissed the speculation that he will be AAP’s chief ministerial face, the Akalis are not willing to stop harping on the issue.
“The Akalis are clutching at straws,” says an AAP leader. “They know it is a losing battle this time and are using as many diversionary tactics as possible. At the same time, we will not make the mistake of underestimating them. Their rural votebank is still strong, especially in Doaba and Majha. They have resources and they know how to use them. And money is flowing too.”
For the Congress, the entry of Sidhu—contesting from Amritsar East constituency—may draw crowds for rallies and meetings, but it has also complicated matters for the party that had not yet declared a CM candidate. Strategist Prashant Kishor, working with Captain Amarinder Singh, had been carefully cultivating his image as the party’s de facto CM face. Campaigns like ‘Coffee with Captain’ to target the youth voters and ‘Captain Smart Connect Scheme’ to distribute smartphones among them were launched to give heft to Amarinder’s status. However, the Congress fell short of officially declaring him as the CM candidate due to the widespread opposition against him within the party.
Party sources say workers on the ground are agitated. “Punjab is the only state among those going to polls where the Congress has a fair chance of forming the government,” says a senior Congress leader, not wanting to be identified. “The problem is that nobody in the party high command really understands the nuances of Punjab. Those who know the state do not have much of a say. Even former prime minister Mamohan Singh is not being consulted. I just hope that Congress doesn’t end up losing a winning match.”
AAP is going all guns blazing in its Punjab campaign
Amarinder, though, seems undeterred and carries on in his inimitable Maharaja style. Publicly declaring that he is contesting his last election, he is giving it his all. Talking to Outlook after filing nomination papers, Amarinder was in a combative mood. “Jats love a good fight and I am raring to go,” he said. “This is my last election and that is why I want to end it at Patiala. And I am fighting in Lambi because I want to teach this man (Parkash Singh Badal) a lesson.”
When SAD fielded former army chief Gen J.J. Singh to take him on in his home turf Patiala, Amarinder grandly declared that a captain will defeat a general for the first time. In Lambi, where he is taking on chief minister Badal on his home turf, he claimed he was going to “cook Badal’s goose” because he has ruined the state.
As Amarinder filed his nomination papers on January 18, the last day for filing nominations, he rued the fact that property prices had come down during Badal’s rule. “Even the worth of my palace has gone down by half,” he told reporters.
However, what has surprised political observers is that amid all this drama and hectic activity, SAD’s ally in the government, the BJP, has been keeping an uncharacteristically low profile. The only upheaval in the party was seen when it declared candidates for 23 of the 117 assembly seats it will contest in Punjab. BJP state president and Union minister Vijay Sampla threatened to quit since he was believed to be unhappy about ticket distribution. Though he later denied he wanted to resign, BJP sources say Sampla changed his tune after he was given a dressing down by party president Amit Shah for public display of dissatisfaction.
Meanwhile, the Akalis are also believed to be miffed with the BJP for its hands-off approach. Sources close to the Badals say the ruling family is extremely disappointed as the BJP is not lending a hand in campaigning. “The BJP seems to have abandoned the Akalis when they are down. A few rallies by the senior BJP leaders and maybe one or two by Prime Minister Narendra Modi can change the complexion,” an Akali leader tells Outlook.
As soon as the BJP started getting negative feedback about the incumbent government a year ago, it started pulling itself back. Amit Shah started openly claiming that his party was merely a “junior partner” in the Akali-led government when allegations were made about drug abuse, corruption and increasing unemployment. “This was enough of a signal for the other party workers that they need not invest too much in the state,” reveals a BJP leader.
Moreover, the RSS too has not been keen on continuing the alliance with the Akalis. “The Sangh wanted the BJP to contest all the seats on its own,” a BJP leader lets on. “Being a border state, it affected the security of the entire country—that was the Sangh’s rationale. The Sangh was also unhappy with reports of the resurgence of the Khalistan slogans and that some senior politicians were involved in drug trade.” According to him, Modi might just address “one or two” rallies in the state, but nothing has been decided so far. The prime minister, incidentally, is scheduled to address a rally in Manipur, which goes to polls on March 4.
Even though the Badals are battling anti-incumbency, an unhelpful ally and hostility from a large section of Punjabis, their rivals are not writing them off. “They are quite capable of a last-minute ambush,” claims a cautious AAP leader.
