Calls to phase out unabated fossil fuels, reform subsidies on it and triple global renewable energy capacity may find their way into the outcome of the first-ever global stocktake, a periodic assessment of collective efforts to achieve the Paris Agreement goals.
Initiated in Glasgow in 2021, the first-ever global stocktake will conclude at the annual climate talks (COP28) in Dubai in December.
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) recently released a report summarising submissions made by countries and non-party stakeholders regarding the political response to the global stocktake.
"They will inform negotiations but there's no guarantee any particular element will make it into the final text. With that said, fossil fuel phase-out is prominently featured in this long list of possible decision elements," Natalie Jones, a policy advisor at climate policy think tank International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), said.
According to the UNFCCC report, possible elements of the global stocktake outcome could include a call to parties on "phase-out of fossil fuels, support global commitment to accelerate the phase-out of unabated fossil fuels, and efforts to phase out inefficient fuel subsidies by 2025, supported by enabling environments and upscaling investments in renewable energy".
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in September that global demand for oil, natural gas and coal is likely to peak by 2030. The IEA termed it an encouraging development but "not nearly enough" to limit the rise in global average temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Countries promised to phase out "inefficient" fossil fuel subsidies at COP26 in Glasgow in 2021 and COP27 in Sharm El Sheikh in 2022, but they hit record highs in 2022.
A report that came ahead of the G20 Leaders' Summit in New Delhi in September said countries in the bloc allocated a staggering USD 1.4 trillion of public funds to support fossil fuels in 2022, aiming to counter the impact of their soaring prices due to the Ukraine war and strengthen energy reserves.
Earth's global surface temperature has risen by around 1.15 degrees Celsius. The CO2 spewed mostly by the developed countries into the atmosphere since the start of the industrial revolution is closely tied to it.
In the business-as-usual scenario, the world is heading for a temperature rise of around 3 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
Climate science says the world must halve emissions by 2030 from the 2009 levels to limit global average temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius as compared to the pre-industrial levels to avoid extreme, destructive and likely irreversible effects of climate change.
According to global agencies, the last four months (June, July, August and September) were the hottest on record, with 2023 on track to be the warmest year ever.
Developing countries argue that wealthier nations should take greater responsibility for emission reductions, given their massive historical emissions and provide the necessary means of implementation, including finance and technology, to assist developing and vulnerable nations in transitioning to clean energy and adapting to climate change.
The global stocktake outcome may also include a call for a "global phase-out of unabated coal power generation by 2040 in a just manner" and tripling the capacity deployment of renewable and clean energy by 2030.
Doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvements from 2.2 per cent to over 4 per cent annually across sectors by 2030 is also among the possible elements listed in the UN report for discussion at COP28.
The final discussions could also include a call for supporting the doubling of low-carbon hydrogen production across sectors by 2030 and recognising the role of natural gas as an efficient transitional fuel.
The UNFCCC report highlights the possible element that the global North cannot be asking to end financing for fossil fuels in the global South "without taking corresponding actions" in their own countries.
India had also highlighted this issue in its submission to the UNFCCC regarding its expectations from the global stocktake outcome.
