As the tussle over the seat sharing in Uttar Pradesh between Congress and Samajwadi Party (SP) is becoming worse with neither of the parties in a mood to cede space to the other, BSP factor is becoming politically relevant. Congress earlier though contemplated to take BSP into the INDIA block, Mayawati didn’t seem to be much interested. A few weeks ago, in no uncertain terms she said that the opposition alliance members should not be talking about any party that is not part of their block. On her 68th birthday, she again spoke about her intention to fight the elections alone.
In this backdrop, INDIA alliance doesn’t have any formidable Dalit party in northern India that could counter the social engineering politics of the BJP. Notably, the ruling party’s performance in Dalit constituencies across the country has been improving since it came to power in 2014. As per the data of CSDS-Lokniti, in 2019 Loksabha elections, BJP garnered 34% of Dalit votes against 24% that they received in 2014. On the other hand, Congress just got 17.1% SC votes in 2019. The huge leap of BJP in terms of Dalit votes become further clear if one looks at their percentage during 2004 elections where they could manage only 13% against Congress’s 27%.
Even if one looks at the recent set of assembly elections, BJP got 57 SC seats among 98 SC-reserved seats in Rajasthan, MP, Telangana and Chhattisgarh. While Congress and the INDIA block members are seemingly focusing on resurgence of OBC politics through the demands of caste census- though it miserably failed in last elections- BJP is trying to strengthen its constituencies among Dalits and Adivasis.
But till now, the INDIA block couldn’t manage to address the Dalit-dominated parties except Prakash Ambedkar’s VBA. Senior Dalit leader Mallikarjun Kharge though has been selected as the chairperson of the opposition alliance; would it be sufficient for them to address one of the most significant constituencies electorally? A closer look at the stance of Dalit parties would make it further clear.
‘No’ from Mayawati
Uncertainty over BSP’s joining the grand alliance loomed for the longest until this week, when Mayawati said, “Our experience with alliances has never been beneficial for us and we suffer more losses from alliances. For this reason, most of the parties in the country want to ally with BSP. An alliance can be considered after the elections. If possible, BSP can extend its support after the elections...our party will fight the elections all alone.”
Her statement also makes a passing reference to the 2019 alliance with Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections. The alliance, which lost the polls, did not prove to be too successful as Mayawati walked away blaming the SP for its unequal distribution of Muslim tickets. Since then, the tie between the two UP-based parties has remained tense.
Possibly, the SP’s engagement in the formation of the INDIA block has also kept its regional rival BSP away from the alliance. Last month, when the SP asked the Congress to decide on its alliance with SP, Mayawati shot back saying that saying INDIA members should not talk about parties that are not its allies. “It can’t be predicted who will need whom in the future. In such a scenario, these people may be left ashamed at a later stage. The SP is a living example,” Mayawati said.
However, Congress’s push for an alliance with SP follows the need for the Muslim vote as well. While Dalits make up 20% electorate of the UP, Muslims comprise 19% The Muslim-Yadav equation propounded by Mulayam Singh Yadav still works on the ground, believe some analysts.
On the other hand, BSP’s terse relationship with Congress dates back to the 1990s. BSP’s desperation to distance Dalits from Congress has been visible from time to time despite short-term bonhomie between them. In 2019 when several BSP leaders were poached by the Ashok Gehlot government in Rajasthan, Mayawati openly accused Congress of “betrayal” and called the party “anti-OBC, anti-SC, and anti-ST”.
It is often pointed out that Congress has always been the opponent of Dr. BR Ambedkar and his ideology. “That is why Ambedkar had to resign as the country’s first law minister. Congress neither allowed him to get elected in Lok Sabha nor honoured him with Bharat Ratna,” BSP cites.
Along with this, it’s important to note that BSP has always had a growing inclination towards the BJP since the late 1990s, when BSP and Congress entered into an electoral alliance in Uttar Pradesh in 1996. However, soon after BSP dumped Congress, and joined hands with the BJP to form a short-lived government.
In recent years Mayawati has often been seen riding on soft praises for the BJP with one of her latest praises towards Union Minister Amit Shah in the run-up of the 2022 UP elections. Responding to the BJP leader’s comment on BSP’s continued relevance, Mayawati said that it was Amit Shah’s “greatness” that he accepted the truth. In an interview, Amit Shah said, "The BSP has maintained its relevance. I believe they will get votes. I don't know how much of it will convert into seats, but it will get votes.”
However, with all of these factors contributing to Mayawati’s refusal to join INDIA and subsequently taking away a large chunk of Dalit votes, the Congress could have chosen to amass the same through Chandrasekhar Azad. But they chose not to.
Why did INDIA Block not reach out to ‘Ravan’?
The 28-party opposition has left UP-based Azad Samaj Party (ASP) and Bhim Army chief Chandrasekhar Azad to not remotely enter into a conflict with the Mayawati-led BSP. Azad and Mayawati lie on two ends of UP’s Dalit politics with the former seem to have connect with the Dalit youth in the state’s western belt. He runs over 300 Bhim Army ‘pathshalas’, offering free education to children from the weaker sections.
Although Azad openly extended support to RLD and SP, two prime parties in the alliance, ASP functionaries expressed their perplexity over the uncertainty of being kept away from the alliance and have expressed hope for clarity from the party’s senior leaders.
Dilly-dally over Prakash Ambedkar?
The third and another key Dalit politician, Prakash Ambedkar of VBA, has expressed his disgruntlement over an alliance with INDIA Bloc “not yet being materialised”. Prakash Ambedkar, the grandson of Dr Babasaheb Ambedkar, who is a two-term Lok Sabha member of Lok Sabha from Akola and one-time Rajya Sabha member, received an invitation to join Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Nyay Yatra. However, “without being inducted into I.N.D.I.A”, Prakash said, “it would be difficult for me to join him in his yatra”.
“I have reviewed an invitation from Rahul Gandhi to join him in his Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra. I have conditionally accepted the invitation and stressed on the fact that it would be difficult for me to join him in his yatra as VBA has not yet been invited to the I.N.D.I.A alliance and MVA,” he said.
Although described as an “important pillar of the INDIA alliance” by Rahul Gandhi, VBA’s official Twitter account wrote, “Why Hasn't the VBA gotten an official invitation to join MVA and INDIA Alliance yet ?”
According to political analysts, Congress’s attempt at mobilising backward classes to join the social coalition has helped the party to win states like Karnataka and somewhat Telangana. So, looping in Ambedkar from Maharashtra, a state that has historically seen mass mobilisation of Dalits under his grandfather Ambedkar, might be advantageous for INDIA.
