Grand asphalt highways with lush mustard fields on both sides eventually give sight to mud-walled homes laid out beside brick-paved roads on an eastward journey from central Uttar Pradesh. The contrast virtually symbolises a distinct difference in development between two territories of the country’s most populous state, where a seven-phase election is on but no strong winds are blowing in any party’s favour.
This assembly poll is all about a strategic shift of the Muslim voters from the long embrace of the Samajwadi Party (SP). Where the Muslim voter turns, it is widely believed, will determine the electoral verdict. But (s)he is watching which direction the gathering storm takes, and until then has apparently decided to stay firmly astride the ruling party’s bicycle. This election is also about Mayawati, whose BSP has strongly held out for the Muslims to break with the Yadavs and forge with the Dalits a new socio-political alliance. Were this a ‘wave’ poll led by the Hindus, there would’ve been much sound and fury, BSP rural cadres explain. However, they say, since it is the Muslims with whom the BSP is fashioning an alliance, there is confusion instead of elation.
This also explains why even astute political watchers in UP admit to a contradictory trend unfolding right before their eyes: on the one hand the BSP, they say, is the most talked-about party. All the same, they find that the Muslims are indeed standing by the gathbandan—the SP-Congress alliance.
For the BJP, this election is all about its performance vis-à-vis the impressive score (71/80) in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls—plus a test of the appeal that Prime Minister Narendra Modi holds also as Varanasi’s MP. It has tried to strike up alliances beyond the Brahmins and Banias, staking claims on OBC groups and a section of the Dalit voters.
This mix explains why caste matters in this election, but so does badlav—change. The “performance” of parties is only a platform from which voters plan to strike a blow in favour of or against the BJP or the alliance. The BSP, for now, has emerged undisputed as the progenitor of the rule of “law and order” and social peace.
This gets reflected in the SP stronghold of Mainpuri, where erstwhile loyalists of the party’s founder Mulayam Singh Yadav have made a beeline for the BSP. Says Arvind Jaswant, who is among them with his supporters: “Hamarey neta ko SaPa ne ticket nahi diya toh ab hum haathi ko jitayenge. (Our leader did not get a ticket from the SP, so we will ensure that the BSP wins)”. Political pundits believe that the Yadav’s caste affinity to the SP will trump all else, including demonetisation. But many Yadavs and non-Yadavs—personally aggrieved—appear quite prepared to challenge the SP’s classical Yadav-Muslim formula in the very same central UP laboratory where it was forged.
It is not just the pundits; even ordinary people believe that Yadav loyalties to the SP will overshadow their discontent over being pushed into political insignificance or failings on the law-and-order front. “You don’t know these people,” says Ram Vichar, the patriarch of a central-UP Brahmin family in Kannauj’s Chhibramau. “In the polling booth, Yadavs will only press the cycle button.”
But days after Mainpuri voted (on February 19), that is still not how the breakaway factions of the SP felt. Jaswant reports firmly that he and several other supporters have not reconsidered his shift to the BSP: “Don’t you worry, Bua-ji (Mayawati) will win seats in Mainpuri and also form the government.” Resentment against the SP is palpable in Kannauj as well, where the Brahmins dominate many villages along the highway. The SP’s perceived jaundiced approach toward non-Yadavs, making it difficult for others to access government jobs and facilities, is a key grouse, followed by complaints over women’s safety. Whether these negatives will overcome the SP’s development track record is the main question.
Septuagenarian Vichar is one who will stick with the SP, he says, and extols chief minister Akhilesh Singh’s development achievements as the explanation. “The Grand Trunk Road is right outside my house. We have electricity round the clock. What more can we ask?” But his nephew, Pawan, has decided to vote “for Modi”, while son Ved Prakash has a soft corner for Mayawati. “Last week in Hardoi, I saw the BSP was doing very well among voters,” he says.
What was obvious in Mainpuri and Kannauj was also apparent in Varanasi or Mirzapur, Chandauli or Amethi, Rae Bareli or Jaunpur. No gale is blowing in any party’s favour, and so trends vary with constituencies. The only apparent direction in this election is that of headstrong opinions. In Jyonti, a potato-growing agglomeration in rural Mainpuri, a young BJP canvasser, two retired soldiers and bystanders break into a heated argument over the relatives merits of the BJP and Congress—the two parties said to be neck-and-neck in their seat.
“The BJP raised military pensions which the Congress never did,” says Brij Kishore Gupta, a young BJP worker. Ram Vilas Singh, a former army man, doesn’t weigh this proposition as much as he rebuts it. “In Congress days, one or two soldiers may have been beheaded by Pakistan, but now there’s no end to the deaths of military personnel. The Centre is using the army...”
Satish Kumar, a labourer, inevitably brings up demonetisation. “The Banias faced tough times after notebandi, as they had black money,” he says. Gupta, the BJP sympathiser, tries to settle matters: “We Hindus must vote for the BJP.” Yadav shouts back: “Do you even know what Hindu is?”
Similar scenes unfold in teashops on the outskirts of Lucknow, in Rae Bareli, in Jais, in Amethi. At times, people nearly came to blows—as it did in Amethi between supporters of BJP contestant Garima Singh and a Congress loyalist. A local BJP leader explains such hostilities as a sign of voter rigidity. “Everyone has already decided whom to vote for; nobody is willing to change minds.”
Congress-SP workers on Lucknow-Amethi road
In Bachhrawan tehsil of Rae Bareli, a trio of shop-owners and a bank employee praises demonetisation’s impact on “curbing” black money, while onlookers intervene to decry the “failure” of the SP’s as well as BJP’s welfare schemes. From old-age pensions in the state to Modi’s pet LPG subsidy scheme, all are sources of dissatisfaction.
Bacchrawan has three lakh residents of whom a fourth are Kurmi voters. It has 60,000 Passis and 30,000 Jatavs, followed by Muslims and Yadavs. It is a reserved constituency where all parties have tried to field a Passi. In Pahurawan village, a settlement of Passis and Rajbhars in Bachhrawan, Akhilesh is seen as an ineffective leader. “He is such a man that women are unsafe,” says Shyam Sunder Bharti, pursuing graduation. “If we try to register a complaint, the police don’t cooperate. There has been some development, which hasn’t reached here.” Ram Prakash and Asha, farm labourers in the village, express angst against the Congress too. “The Congress did nothing for us,” says Asha. Adds Ram: “Demonetisation has had a terrible impact on us.” They do not spell out their choice, but the BSP and a former SP legislator contesting on a Rashtriya Lok Dal ticket are the two parties here that are most talked about.
Typically in UP, such a closely-contested election creates conditions for results to tilt in favour of the BSP. This happened in 2007, when Mayawati won, despite expectations, in a triangular contest. This is because the victory margin required to win reduces in such close contests. The BSP has a solid 19 per cent base of Dalits, and secure cadre voters, giving it an edge for victory.
In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the possibility of the BSP’s victory had reduced, as the Brahmins who had voted for her in 2007 moved away when there emerged a prospect of her capturing power at the Centre. In that election, the BSP slogan ‘UP hui hamari hai, ab dilli ki baari hai” (UP is ours, now we capture Delhi) is believed to have turned the Brahmins against the BSP.
Based on these precedents, the residents of Jais in Amethi’s Tiloi assembly segment, the town where 16th-century poet Malik Mohammad Jaisi who composed the Padmavat was born, should be reconsidering their support for the SP-Congress alliance. Now a decrepit rundown place with medieval brick walls crumbling all over the residents, its Muslims (Shia and Sunni) are, however, firmly aboard the SP juggernaut, refusing to even consider the BSP. Their perception that Muslims were “not regarded” under Mayawati’s rule is playing a role in this, along with Jais’ close ties with the Gandhi clan.
BSP roadshow in Mainpuri
The locally prominent Muslim trader, Mohd Faeem, who belongs to the Gaddi or shepherding caste group, feels Congress leaders such as Feroze Gandhi, his daughter-in-law Sonia and grandson Rahul personally visited Jais and brought industries and educational institutions. “Hence, there is little support for the BSP’s local candidate, Saud Ahmed, among Muslim constituents,” he feels. Adds Wasi Ahmed Naqvi, a retired schoolteacher in Jais: “What we need is a star campaigner or two to come here and introduce the Congress candidate to us. He is new and unknown for all of us.”
A section of Jais’ Mauryas back Modi, but not explicitly his BJP. Here, demonetisation has proved to be a mixed bag. In their perception, notebandi was not properly handled but the PM’s intentions are noble. The BJP candidate is considered powerful and effective due to this factor. He is Mayankeshwar Singh, a three-time MLA since 1993—twice on BJP tickets and once from the SP. He is son of the erstwhile Tiloi king. Shatrughan Maurya, a clothing storeowner, thinks most people will vote for the raja. “We have no degree college, no jobs for educated youngsters, no teachers in schools, no focus on cleanliness, no businesses, no factory...They think they can win us with money power. People want badlav,” he says, echoing a strong criticism of the SP-Congress alliance. He, however, is one of the Mauryas who will not vote even for the sake of Modi for the BJP, instead plans to opt for NOTA.
In Amethi city, a stronghold of the Congress in Lok Sabha elections, advocate Abhishek Chaudhary, a Kurmi Mahasangh leader, expects Aditi Singh, the Congress contestant, to win on account of an “incredible sympathy” for her father, the strongman Akhilesh Kumar Singh, who has won this seat five times on a Congress ticket and as an independent backed by the Peace Party. “He attends to every appeal for help from locals and does not let Muslims get overconfident,” says Chaudhary.
In Chaudhary’s understanding, the Kurmis are expected to lodge a protest against all political parties “in some way” this election, for not having fielded a Kurmi candidate. This community dominates the OBCs in the central to eastern regions, along with the Koeris. “We have no leadership. Look how they have made Anupriya Patel a leader, a minister and district incharge. We have not even got a Kurmi candidate. This is partiality.”
Again, though he praises Modi’s extempore speeches and his “non-dynastic” rise in politics, Chaudhary says, “one bad apple spoils the lot”, referring to the BJP’s Yogi Adityanath and other leaders whose inflammatory remarks against the minorities are “against the Constitution”.
As the Yadavs and OBCs are casting about for options, it is only the possibility of the Muslims turning towards the BSP that all are watching out for. If at all, this migration shows up indirectly. Both alliance partners are often seen as tainted by corruption, and where only an SP candidate is fielded, the Muslims keenly observe his potential to defeat the BJP.
The BJP gave a solid jolt to the Congress in the last LS polls in Amethi, finishing second and shedding 24 per cent of the Congress’ vote-share, while in the 2002 assembly polls the SP wrested away 12 of the 15 seats in Rae Bareli, Amethi and Sultanpur. The Jatavs in Amethi now back Aditi too, based on her father’s reputation, giving the Congress a fresh lease of life.
Further east into UP, in Jaunpur, Varanasi, Mirzapur and Chandauli, the Muslim-Dalit factor is riding a see-saw of expectations and fears. “The Muslims traditionally vote for the party they feel will defeat the BJP. I prefer Mayawati, but people here are leaning towards the SP,” says Ateeq Ansari, an activist in Varanasi who works among the city’s weavers, who number roughly two lakh.
Post demonetisation, fear, trepidation and fury against the BJP have bubbled up in Lallapura where the weavers, mostly Muslim, live and work. They recall the last assembly elections, when a BSP candidate lost by 2,200 votes despite appeals to Muslim residents to help make up a shortfall of 3,000 votes—enough to beat the BJP. But people felt that the Congress would defeat the BJP; so they didn’t heed them. The BJP ended up winning. “This time, the Muslims have not made up their mind yet,” says young weaver Ahmed Ansari. “People don’t want to polarise the elections. They are therefore being very watchful.”
Only when pushed do Muslims in the Jaunpur, Varanasi and Chandauli regions acknowledge they are yet to make up minds. In Jaffrabad, a kasba of Jaunpur near Varanasi, Jatav women openly support the BSP. “We don’t care if Mayawati wins or loses. We have our party and we stick to it,” says Aditi. However, the Muslims are wary of Mayawati’s “track record” and also favour the familiar face fielded from the Congress-SP alliance, MLA Jagdish Rai (SP). “We are not voting by party, but only for our own candidate,” says Shakeel Ahmed, who runs a computer repair store. “Akhilesh is an experienced administrator now. In Mayawati rule, if we even spoke to the Dalits harshly, we faced police cases. Today, there is no Mayawati wave here. Why should we waste our votes?”
The scenario drastically alters beyond Varanasi. In Chandauli’s Dhanapur village, which is part of the Saiyadraja constituency, both the SP and BJP are being challenged by breakaway factions of the SP who have converged to the BSP. The place has 3,000 Nishad or Mallah voters (who traditionally back the BJP), as many Brahmins and 2,000 Vaishyas. The Bind and Mallah altogether number around 35,000 across all of Saiyadraja, other than Pals and other SCs, who were hit hard by the November 8 withdrawal of two high-value banknotes.
The BSP, in a clear indication of her intention to woo both Muslims and Dalits, has fielded jailed strongman Vineet Singh, who is currently lodged in a Ranchi prison. This, in response to the BJP’s Sushil Singh, who is the nephew of another notorious local don, Brajesh Singh. Vineet’s son Akash is campaigning on his behalf.
Former SP supporters, Hindu and Muslim, have backed the BSP vociferously in the village. The local residents also identify some well-known BJP men participating in Vineet’s rally, as they try to keep their options open in these confusing times. The shopkeepers alone expect the BJP to race past the gathering momentum of the BSP. Reason: “the BJP always wins here”.
But the 2,000 Pathans in their section of the village are conflicted. “Mayawati keeps the police tight. Mulayam is just into gunda-gardi. When he cut out his own father what can we expect from him. I am actively considering BSP,” says Mohd Sansar Khan, a farmer. Adds Saif Khan, who studies at Delhi’s Jamia Millia Islamia: “The BSP has had a government for five years in UP. We got nothing at the time.” Shadaab, a youngster, however, backs up the SP led by Akhilesh.
Half the polls are over in UP, and it is only then the PM directly attacked Mayawati, perhaps sensing the on-ground confusion, or as a bow to her party believed to have swept ahead in the first and third phases. Either way, political parties are resorting to old tricks, including trying to consolidate Hindu votes. This is bound to get even more bellicose, as Mayawati, Rahul and Akhilesh try to win over new supporters. It will be undoubtedly a bruising last three rounds, simply because nobody is well-placed to win.
By Pragya Singh in central and Eastern UP
