What could work against Naidu is another drought. Twenty-one of the state's 23 districts have been declared drought-affected. As temperatures rise, water sources are once again drying up, creating severe drinking water shortages and frustrating farmers who already blame Naidu for not doing enough for the agriculture sector.
It also does nothing for Naidu's image that Andhra Pradesh already has the dubious record for the highest number of farmer suicides in the country. Now, indices in the industrial sector are not encouraging either. Both rural and urban unemployment is rising and the state's GDP has remained below the national average despite Naidu's much discussed economic reforms. Meanwhile, the state's debt burden continues to spiral and touched Rs 54,8321 in the last fiscal.
To counter the anti-incumbency factor, Naidu has chosen 95 new faces and denied tickets to 36 sitting MLAs, including three ministers. This, and the fact that tickets were given to four Congress rebels, sparked unprecedented dissidence within the party. In fact, rebel candidates are proving a major challenge for all the key parties given that the margins that separated candidates in the last elections were wafer-thin.
The eastern state of Orissa is yet another reflection of how the Congress has mastered the art of ruining what appeared to be an advantageous situation. It was an opportunity for the party to make up for its defeat in the 2000 assembly elections when it was reduced to 26 seats in the 147-member House. The cracks that appeared in the Naveen Patnaik-led BJD within a year of the alliance coming to power in 2000 had become deeper in the last four years. Leaders instrumental in creating the Biju Janata Dal—from Nalinikanta Mohanty to Ramakrushna Patnaik, Srikanta Jena and Dilip Ray—were expelled by Naveen on apparently flimsy charges. The resentment was growing among the party cadres.
But instead of letting the prominent BJD rebels float their own outfits and cut into the parent's voteshare, the Congress chose to roll out the red carpet for them in the face of stiff opposition from its cadres. Trying to accommodate them in the ticket distribution has totally upset Congress' own balance.
As of now, Naveen Patnaik and the BJD-BJP combine are the clear winners by all accounts. The alliance has succeeded in making corruption during J.B. Patnaik's regime and Naveen Patnaik's own clean image a major election issue. The Congress is still quelling dissent while the BJD-BJP's campaign is well on its way.
Despite this, the PCC chief still sounds optimistic. J.B. Patnaik says the Congress will get between ten to 12 Lok Sabha seats and form a government in the state. "There is strong anti-incumbency. You are welcome to be my guest when we form the government," Patnaik told Outlook. Considering that he lost from Athgarh assembly seat last time by a margin of about 40,000 votes while Naveen Patnaik won from Hinjli by 26,417 votes, such optimism sounds hollow even to his own workers.
