Explained: How Is BJP Rebuilding NDA Coalition Ahead Of 2024 Polls, Is It Setback For INDIA Bloc?

The outreach involves both the constituents of the Opposition INDIA bloc and parties that have left the BJP-led NDA in recent years over a variety of reasons. The most prominent case is of the Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal-United (JD-U) which quit the INDIA bloc to join the NDA.

In Uttar Pradesh, the formalisation of the Rashtriya Lok Dal's (RLD) entry in the NDA is understood to be imminent. In Punjab, the BJP is understood to be talks with the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and the party is reported to be in talks with the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) in Tamil Nadu.

Here we explain the idea behind BJP's outreach to these parties, what we know of the ongoing talks, and if it is a setback to the INDIA bloc.

Why Is BJP Reaching Out To Regional Parties?

In the second Modi ministry, a number of parties left the Bharatiya Janata Party-led (BJP) ruling coalition of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The first high-profile exit was that of the Punjab-based Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) in 2020 over the now-repealed farm laws.

In 2022, Nitish-led JD (U) quit the NDA and joined hands with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, and Left parties in Bihar. In 2023, Tamil Nadu-based AIADMK left the NDA. Now, while the JD (U) is again within the folds of the NDA, talks are going on with the AIADMK.

Earlier, the erstwhile unified Shiv Sena had left the NDA in 2019 to join hands with the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and Congress to form government under the 'Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA)' coalition. In 2018, the Telugu Desham Party (TDP) had quit the NDA.

Now, years down the line, while several of these players have returned to the NDA or are in talks for such a return, others stand battered. This is part of the BJP's efforts to bolster its coalition ahead of the 2014 general election, make its support base and social bloc as broad as possible, and weaken the INDIA coalition. By bringing more and more regional parties within NDA, the BJP also seeks to make a moral point against the allegations that the party does not respect federalism.

While Sena was splintered in 2022 when Chief Minister Eknath Shinde rebelled, the NCP was split last year when party patriarch Sharad Pawar's nephew Ajit Pawar along with his loyalists joined the Shinde-led NDA government in the state. While the BJP has been infamous of 'Operation Lotus' and attempts at splitting Opposition parties and allies like, observers have seen outreach lately as a sign that the BJP is now becoming more accommodative to regional parties.

In an article in The Print, citing the example of the alliance of Shinde-led Sena and BJP in Maharashtra, DK Singh noted that there are signs that, in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP is changing its position towards regional parties from its a "care-a-damn attitude and aggressive expansionist agenda at the cost of both allies and rivals in states to a more accommodative approach to coopt them".

There may be another reason for the BJP's outreach to regional parties. The coming together of the INDIA bloc with the intention of uniting all non-BJP voters may also be driving the BJP's outreach. Between the NDA and INDIA blocs, one key difference is that while BJP barely has a partner getting double-digit seats in the NDA, that is not the case in INDIA as the parties are on a much more equal footing. This means that if INIDA blocs manages to eat into the BJP's votes, then the BJP's partners would not be able to provide much cushion, so the BJP may be working towards maximising that cushion to substantiate any loss of votes from Opposition unity against it.

BJP Reaching Out To Allies As It Has Peaked In States

Despite the confidence that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) exude, the fact remains that the BJP has peaked in its traditional bastions and is facing new challenges. The BJP has a minuscule presence in South India and relies on support in North India.

The BJP-led NDA secured 64 out of the 80 seats in UP, all the 26 in Gujarat, all 25 in Rajasthan, 28 of 29 in Madhya Pradesh, nine out of 11 in Chhattisgarh, 12 of 14 in Jharkhand, and all the 10 seats in Haryana. With such a peak in its core support area, the BJP is unlikely to peak further, particularly in the context of attempts at Opposition unity — which have, though, faltered in at least three states so far.

"Even at the height of its popularity in 2019, it got 303 seats, 31 more than the majority figure in the Lok Sabha. In 2024, as it stands today, it won’t have anything more to add to what it had already offered in 2019 to the increasingly transactional voters with ever-increasing demands," noted DK Singh in an article in The Print.

What We Know Of BJP's Talks With SAD, AIADMK, RLD?

While the talks with the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) are going on, the entry of Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) is understood to be imminent.

When asked by media following the announcement of Bharat Ratna for Chaudhary Charan Singh if he is joining the NDA, his grandson and RLD chief Jayant Singh said: "Is there any doubt left now? How can I say no to your question today?"

Charan Singh is among the tallest farmer leaders in the modern Indian history and is a former Prime Minister of India and a CM of UP. He is also the tallest icon of the Jat community, which holds sway in West UP, Haryana, and Rajasthan. The RLD, the party founded by Charan Singh's son Ajit Singh and currently run by Jayant Singh, is primarily a Jat- and farmer-centric party with its base in West UP.

As for the SAD, there appear to be differences over seat-sharing in Punjab. The Hindustan Times reported that while the BJP was pressing for six Lok Sabha seats of the total 13 in Punjab, the SAD was not willing to offer more than four. The SAD had quit the NDA in 2020 over opposition to the now-repealed farm laws. The BJP is understood to be pushing for more seats as SAD is no longer the political force that it once was and the BJP too has been making inroads in rural Punjab.

The Indian Express has cited sources to report that a first round of talks between the leaders of BJP and SAD took place in the last week of January and another is likely to happen soon. A senior BJP leader told the paper, "Discussions about reviving the SAD-BJP alliance were being held internally when the AAP and the Congress were also holding alliance talks (which have collapsed). Can’t say anything more, except that many senior SAD leaders are ready to join the BJP."

In Tamil Nadu, while the BJP appears keen to bring AIADMK in the folds of the NDA, Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami —EPS— continues to be stiff to the outreach. EPS on Sunday said sat at a public meeting that the doors for the BJP have been shut. The party walked out of the NDA last year's over differences with the Tamil Nadu BJP chief Annamalai.

Is BJP's Outreach Threat To INDIA Bloc?

While the poaching of allies like the JD (U) and RLD are definitely setbacks to the INDIA bloc, the broader outreach of the BJP may not be much of a setback as these are very small parties with little presence and most of outside of the INDIA bloc anyway.

For example, AIADMK has one Lok Sabha seat, SAD has two, and RLD has none. The Telugu Desam Party (TDP), which also appears to be in talks with the BJP, has three Lok Sabha MPs.

Moreover, in West UP, RLD has been looking at questions of relevance for some time as a substantial chunk of its traditional Jat voters have drifted to the BJP and tallest RLD leaders, Ajit Singh and son Jayant Singh, lost both 2014 and 2019 elections.

The poaching of parties and the shifting of alliances may, however, spell trouble in the sense that there may be much more scrambling in the seat-sharing talks within the INDIA bloc. In UP, however, the exit of RLD may push the Congress to stake claim on more seats with the senior partner Samajwadi Party (SP). It has been reported that while Congress had been pushing for 20-25 seats, SP supremo Akhilesh Yadav unilaterally announced 11 seats for the party.

Now, in the absence of the RLD and a possible vacuum in West UP, SP may need to recalibrate its strategy and perhaps cede more space to Congress.