The Congress party is in the habit of inflicting pain on itself. The behaviour of the Congress is like lemmings that are not aware that the path they are traversing could be suicidal for them.
Haryana is among the few states where the Congress could still hold its own. It has bounced back after facing defeats in some of the elections in Haryana, unlike in Bihar or Odisha where the Congress’s slide to oblivion could not be checked.
The Congress should learn of the harm that alliances could do to its social base from the examples of regional parties that had allied with the BJP. In any alliance, some lose and some gain. All the political parties who had aligned with the BJP are in existential crisis. The BJP, once a junior partner of the Shiv sena in Maharashtra, Janta Dal in Karnataka, AGP in Assam, and BJD in Odisha, has gobbled up its alliance partners. The regional parties are struggling for survival while the BJP has become the dominant force in all these States.
The same danger would have existed for the Congress if it had gone for an alliance with the AAP in Haryana. AAP has nothing to lose if an alliance is formed, but the Congress has everything to lose in the long run. By the next assembly elections, AAP would be a force to reckon with if it is able to create some space for itself through the alliance with Congress. That is why AAP was keen to form this alliance. Incidentally, Haryana is the home state of AAP founder Arvind Kejriwal.
The recently concluded Lok Sabha election reconfirmed Congress’ capacity to take on the might of the Modi-Shah jodi in Haryana. The Congress bagged five out of the ten seats and could have gained two more seats if factionalism had not played a detrimental role to the party's prospects. Kiran Chaudhary openly sabotaged the Congress campaign in Bhiwani- Mahendragarh Lok Sabha seat. The same leader was instrumental in the defeat of the Congress candidate in the Rajya Sabha elections.
The Congress’ central leadership ignored the warnings expressed by some of the local leaders. Once again, voices could be heard against aligning with the Aam Aadmi Party. The Congress has lost many of its regional leaders and some of the states are today beyond the reach of the Congress because of this neglect of regional leadership. In Bengal, in the 90s the Congress leadership failed to realise that Mamta Banerjee had the potential to lead the Congress there and take on the Left front. Bengal was lost forever to the Congress, with Mamta Banerjee forming her own regional outfit.
Same was the case with Andhra Pradesh, where the Congress had a solid base but couldn’t retain it when the state was bifurcated in 2014. In Andhra Pradesh, Jagan Mohan Reddy was clamouring for the post of CM, and the Congress leadership could not decipher the charisma which he possessed.
Most of the Congress central leadership comprise of leaders who have little or no standing in their own states. The Congress’s leadership has created factions in the states on the premise that these factions will look towards the central leadership for their survival. Such politics has done more harm than good to the Congress. Rajasthan, Haryana, and even Punjab are good examples of factional politics having let down the party. That was fine when the Congress did not face any challenge to its dominance. Now the Congress faces challenges not only from the BJP but also from regional outfits. The undermining or underestimating of the strength of regional leaders is proving to be Congress’ nemesis. Sharad Pawar, Mamta Banerjee, Jagan Mohan Reddy and Himant Biswa Sarma are some of the leaders whom the Congress could not keep in its fold. Now in Haryana, undermining the authority of Bhupendra Singh Hooda will be like sowing thorns in its own fields.
The pressure of the Congress central leadership on its Haryana unit would not have been beneficial to the Congress neither in the short run nor in the long run. AAP has little support base in the state and an alliance with it would not prove a formidable proposition for the Congress. AAP is trying to make its entry in Haryana on the Congress’ shoulders. There is a wave of support in the Congress’ favour due to the anti-incumbency faced by the ruling party in the state. The Congress does not need the AAP, it is the AAP that needs the Congress to open its shop in the state.
AAP’s foray in Haryana Politics since 2014 has not been successful. Its best showing was in the recently concluded Lok Sabha election that was also because of its alliance with the Congress. In all the election that AAP had fought after 2014 it could garner less than 1per cent of the total votes polled. AAP does not have any formidable grass root leadership that can make an impact on Haryana electorate. Neither has it come out with any policy pronouncements that can sway the voters in its favour. AAP on its own cannot save its deposit even in one constituency. The leaders in the BJP or Congress who are defecting from their respective parties are not looking at the AAP for securing nomination in the elections. This is also a clear sign that AAP is nowhere in the reckoning in the forthcoming assembly elections. Otherwise, it would have attracted some of the turncoats from the BJP, Congress or the JJP. The JJP legislators who deserted Dushyant Chautala are seeking refuge either in the Congress or the BJP. In Punjab politics, the clear signal of AAP’s ascendency could be noticed when a number of leaders from the established parties such as the Akali Dal and the Congress joined the party. Nothing of that sort is happening in Haryana on a noticeable scale.
The AAP has a long way to go before it can leave its mark in the state politics. The compulsions of the Congress to go for an alliance with the AAP are hard to understand. Mamta Banerjee did not go for an alliance with the Congress in the Lok Sabha elections, knowing that she did not need the support of the Congress to take on the BJP. Same is the case in Haryana where the Congress is not reliant on the AAP to defeat the BJP. The INDIA alliance is a national level alliance, it cannot take the same shape in the politics of different states. The logic of politics is different in different states. The INDIA alliance may prove beneficial in Maharashtra, Bihar, or UP but in states like Haryana, Karnataka or Rajasthan, the Congress need not cede its territory even to its alliance partners. Weakening of its base in states where it is strong enough to form a government on its own, an alliance would prove detrimental to its own interest in the long run. So, the Congress’s slogan in Haryana should be “Akela Chalo”.
