The plethora of leaders in the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) Assembly elections campaign in Jharkhand speaks volumes of its effort, but it does not necessarily say much about its ability to secure victory over its chief opponent, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM).
All the alliances and parties have made public their plans for seat sharing and the names of their candidates for the upcoming polls that will be held in two phases. In this eastern state with 81 Assembly seats, the issues of the Adivasis and their Adivasiyat (tribal identity and ethos) have remained at the centre of the discourse for the last 24 years (Jharkhand was formed in November 2000). Every election is marked by allegations, counter-allegations, promises and intentions expressed around these issues. While this is true about the forthcoming elections as well, what has also generated a lot of buzz this time around is the number and kind of political bigwigs that the BJP has pressed into service.
Primarily, the contest is between the two alliances, the INDIA and the NDA, and at the centre of it are the incumbent JMM and the BJP.
Election analyst Anand Kumar, who keeps an eye on the political scenes of Kolhan and Santhal, believes that the electoral battle of Jharkhand is seven versus two. On one side, there is Babulal Marandi, Arjun Munda, Madhu Koda, Champai Soren and Raghubar Das (currently Governor of Odisha). All of them have been Chief Ministers of Jharkhand at some point. In addition, the BJP's election in-charge is Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who is a Union Minister and has twenty years of experience as Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh. His co-in-charge, Himanta Biswa Sarma, too, is currently the Chief Minister of Assam. All these figures, barring Raghubar Das, are currently active in Jharkhand politics. Facing off against this group is the state's Chief Minister Hemant Soren and the JMM's National President and former Chief Minister Shibu Soren.
Kumar says about the BJP’s motley group, "Except Babulal Marandi, none of these leaders has ever been a mass leader. As a man with a [Rashtriya Swayamsevak] Sangh background, Marandi travelled all over Jharkhand. People knew him. But he left the BJP to form his own party and stayed out for 14 years. Now he is not fully accepted within the BJP, nor does he carry a distinct image to set him apart. As for the rest, yes, they were big leaders within the BJP in their respective times, but none of them is a mass leader.”
He adds that the BJP’s list of leaders is long, but it has nothing to equal the kind of popular mass acceptance that Hemant Soren enjoys from Santhal and Kolhan to Dhanbad and Garhwa.
Recently, when Champai Soren, who is known as the Tiger of Kolhan, left the JMM and joined the BJP, it gave rise to numerous speculations. It was even conjectured that with Soren’s help, the BJP will make inroads into all of Kolhan’s 14 seats and the 18 seats of the adjacent Santhal Pargana.
It is worth noting that in the 2019 elections, the BJP lost from every seat in Kolhan, and won only four seats in Santhal. The JMM and the Congress, on the other hand, won 13 and 14 seats respectively in these regions, which was their best performance.
The BJP’s endeavour to burnish and project a Brand Champai in these two regions seems to be losing its lustre. Senior journalist Divyanshu Kumar believes that a certain vibe can be generated around a name and face, but this will not not necessarily sway the voters. He says, “A new energy was definitely felt after Champai Soren joined the BJP, but it is not there now. When milk boils, its top layer rises up. But how long can it remain up? It will deflate eventually.”
Champai Soren is said to have a strong hold over only one or two seats in entire Kolhan. In the 2019 general elections, when he contested from the Jamshedpur seat in Kolhan as a candidate of the United Progressive Alliance, he faced defeat by a margin of three lakh votes. In the recent 2024 Lok Sabha elections, while the JMM won the seat of East Singhbhum in Kolhan, Soren could not give his party an edge in his own seat of Seraikella though he was a sitting Chief Minister.
Among the other old names in the BJP, Arjun Munda is someone whose position within the party has weakened progressively due to repeated electoral losses. Raghubar Das is said to have acquired a personal image of being an arrogant leader during his tenure. Madhu Koda is still struggling to shake off the tag of corruption. There are many factions in the party regarding the CM face. As a result, there is no consensus on any one candidate. There was also resentment among party members after the JMM's Lobin Hembrom and Shibu Soren's elder daughter-in-law Sita Soren were welcomed into the BJP.
On the other hand, Hemant Soren is the undisputed and widely accepted CM face of the INDI Alliance. Although his government has not lived up to the promises made in the party manifesto five years ago, some decisions have definitely strengthened its image among the Adivasis and natives, e.g., the Sarna Dharam Code for a separate religious identity, the 1932 Khatian for defining the domicile policy, and the expansion of the OBC reservation from 14 to 27 per cent. Not all these decisions could take a final legal shape, and for this, the Soren government has blamed the BJP government at the Centre. What is more, it has also succeeded in conveying the same to the public. At the same time, the recent announcement of financial assistance of ₹2,500 every month under the Maiya Samman Yojana for women has increased Soren's popularity among non-Adivasi women.
In its bid for a return to power, the Jharkhand BJP has left no stone unturned in terms of projection of strength, outdoing its own efforts in all the previous Assembly elections held in Jharkhand. The party’s 40 star campaigners for the first phase include Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, eight Union Ministers and six Chief Ministers. In contrast, the INDI Alliance’s star power is chiefly drawn from Hemant Soren and his wife Kalpana Soren, with the campaigners of ally Congress adding relatively little. If political pundits are to be believed, these two by themselves are equal to the whole galaxy of BJP campaigners.
Divyanshu Kumar is of the view that the mere presence of Hemant Soren in the contest sends out a big message. He says, "The BJP is a powerful force. It has the entire machinery to fight elections. It is no small feat that Hemant Soren is facing off with that machinery and proving to be its match. It is a very big thing indeed."
Kumar puts the importance of big-ticket campaigners in perspective by citing the examples of West Bengal and Haryana elections. He says, "Yes, big names definitely create an atmosphere. But you see, in the Bengal Assembly elections, the BJP brought in all its Chief Ministers and big leaders, but the result was not as expected. Mamata Banerjee fought all of them off alone. Similarly, look at the elections in Haryana. Prime Minister Narendra Modi held few rallies there, whereas all the big names of the Congress including Rahul Gandhi held several meetings. Despite this, the results were not in the Congress's favour."
According to many political pundits including Kumar, Hemant Soren's stature has grown and strengthened over the years. It is true that in the last five years, his government has fought on multiple fronts, with he, his ministers and many colleagues coming under the radar of national investigation agencies on charges of corruption. But Soren and his party were able to capitalise on these events to generate sympathy and support for themselves. They kept relaying to the public that the BJP government at the centre was victimising Soren because he is an Adivasi chief minister.
During Hemant Soren’s imprisonment in the corruption case, even though Champai Soren was made the Chief Minister, it was Hemant Soren's wife Kalpana Soren who took charge of the party. In her husband’s absence, she led the party's campaign in the Lok Sabha elections and held a series of rallies and meetings. A wave of sympathy was created among the Adivasis favouring the JMM and its impact was seen on the seats won.
In the 2014 and 2019 elections, the BJP had won 12 of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in the state, but it lost three seats in 2024. It is worth noting that each of those three seats is tribal reserved. At present, all of the five [fact check] tribal reserved seats in the state are with the INDIA, i.e. the JMM and the Congress. Significantly, 24 of the 28 tribal reserved Assembly seats in the state fall in these five Lok Sabha seats.
There is also a widespread perception crediting Kalpana Soren for the way she established herself in Jharkhand politics within six months and strengthened the party and the organisation. She is now being seen as a political complement to Hemant Soren.
(Translated by Kaushika Draavid)
