Under attack for rising crimes, particularly against women, under his watch and for deepening caste and religious discord across Uttar Pradesh, chief minister Yogi Adityanath secured a major vote of confidence on November 10, when the BJP won six of seven assembly seats to which bypolls were held a week ago.
Adityanath had campaigned in each seat, even as rivals targeted him over the recent Hathras gang rape and a slew of ghastly crimes that rocked UP in recent months. Though the BJP’s voteshare shrunk to about 36 per cent in the bypolls amid a resurgence of key rivals Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and even the Congress to an extent, it managed comfortable victories in Naugawan Sadat, Bulandshahr, Tundla, Ghatampur, Deoria and Bangarmau. The lone setback came in Malhani, where BJP finished a distant third in the fight between SP victor Lucky Yadav and his nearest rival, local bahubali Dhananjay Singh, who contested as an independent.
The BJP’s success, however, may be seen as reward for its gradual bonhomie with BSP supremo Mayawati, who broke her party’s record of not contesting bypolls. The decision coincided with her vociferous attacks against SP chief Akhilesh Yadav, with whom Mayawati had entered into a self-serving grand alliance in last year’s Lok Sabha polls.
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In recent months, Akhilesh and Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi Vadra have often been in Mayawati’s firing line. In contrast, despite crimes against Dalits under the BJP regime--the Hathras and Balrampur rapes, and acid attack on three Dalit sisters in Gonda—the BSP chief has rarely been critical of Adityanath.
A cursory glance through votes polled by BJP, BSP and SP candidates shows that the three-way split of votes benefited the BJP. In Ghatampur, where the Congress finished a surprise second (the other being Bangarmau), it was the BSP that helped the BJP win by diverting non-saffron votes. Clearly, UP’s opposition parties frittered away the chance of a victory—in each of the six bypoll seats the BJP won, BSP, SP and Congress candidates collectively polled more votes.
For the Congress, the bypolls gave a glimmer of hope as its candidates put up a spirited fight in Bangarmau and Ghatampur. However, it is crucial for the party, Priyanka in particular, to realise that its collective leadership must be visible. Priyanka and Rahul Gandhi were touted as star campaigners, but did not hit the trail even once. They had raised the issue of the Hathras gang rape more stridently than any, yet went missing from the Bangarmau bypoll campaign, which was necessitated because sitting BJP lawmaker Kuldeep Sengar was disqualified after getting a life sentence in the 2017 Unnao gang rape case. The Congress fielded a woman candidate in Bangarmau, but neither Priyanka nor Rahul saw it fit to canvas for Aarti Bajpai to amplify the demand for women’s safety.
Adityanath, who also deflated recent claims of Brahmin anger against him by ensuring the victory of his Brahmin candidates in the bypolls, claims that the bypoll result is an “endorsement of the good governance…” in UP. There’s no opposition to effectively challenge his claim.
