The BJP may have succeeded in installing the Devendra Fadnavis government on Saturday morning after staging a midnight coup but one man still stands like a big barrier between power and the party: Sharad Pawar.
The NCP founder-president has managed to retain most of his legislators after his nephew Ajit Pawar rebelled against him by extending support to the BJP government and joining it as the deputy chief minister.
In his letter of support to Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari in the capacity of NCP’s erstwhile legislature party leader, Ajit had purportedly claimed support of all the 54 MLAs of his party, but his claim seemed to have been floundering as more than 80 per cent of the newly elected lawmakers turned up at the meeting convened by Sharad Pawar on Saturday evening to express their solidarity with the Maratha strongman.
It has since left Ajit in the lurch, raising a big question mark over the fate of Fadnavis government, which has to go for the floor test to prove its majority in the Maharashtra Vidhan Sabha soon.
On Saturday morning, the Governor had sworn in Fadnavis as the chief minister primarily on the basis of the support letter given by Ajit Pawar, who was also administered oath as the deputy chief minister at the same time. But as the drama unfolded later in the day, it became clear that it was Pawar Senior, and not his ambitious nephew, who still held sway over the party legislators.
The BJP was apparently hoping that Ajit’s rebellion would lead to a vertical split in NCP and a majority of the party legislators would subsequently follow him. But it did not happen. As things stand on Sunday afternoon when the Supreme Court, while hearing a Shiv Sena-Congress-NCP petition, asked the Centre to produce the letters of support and the Maharashtra Governor's invite to form the government, Ajit appears to have been left to fend for himself. Even some of the legislators such as Dhananjay Munde, considered loyal to him, have chosen to side with Sharad Pawar at this juncture.
As for Sharad, it’s the biggest challenge of political career yet. The 79-year-old battle-scarred veteran has to prevent his nephew and protégé from stealing a march over him. He needs to capitalise on his vast political experience to bring the situation back in his control and help the NCP-Congress-Sena coalition form government in the state. In fact, both his allies have left it entirely to him to deal with the situation arising out of Ajit’s rebellion.
As of now, Pawar and his allies have to preempt any poaching attempts on their legislators in the run-up to the trust vote to be sought by the Fadnavis government. These three parties also have to ensure their MLAs do not fall prey to any horse-trading and indulge in any cross-voting or abstain from the House on the D-day.
Without any major split in these parties, it looks tough for Fadnavis to prove his majority. Even the support of all the 29 independents and members of smaller parties may not be enough for his government to sail through. In any case, some of them have already pledged their allegiance to the Sena-led alliance. But then, BJP has always been known to have a few tricks up their sleeves for such situations.
Whatever happens, it is Sharad Pawar’s ability to keep his flock together in adverse circumstances which still holds the key to government formation in Maharashtra. For his part, he is still making a last-ditch bid to persuade his nephew to give up rebellion by his sending emissaries to him.
Ajit has so far been removed only as the legislature party leader of NCP and not expelled from the party. Ajit appears to have not relented so far, but as someone who has been no stranger to such situations in the past, Pawar Senior knows it very well that there is no harm in leaving the party door ajar till the last minute for the return of his estranged party men, including his nephew, in order to turn the tables on his mighty political rivals.
