As the Madhya Pradesh electorate awaits results of the 28 assembly bypolls, could a new political storm be brewing in the state? The results, due on November 10, will decide whether the state, which has seen two governments in the past 23 months, is headed for another change or a continuation the Shivraj Singh Chouhan administration. Bypolls were held on November 3 in 25 (of 28) constituencies following the defection of Congress MLAs to the BJP.
For the BJP and chief minister Chouhan, a victory in nine seats would assure a simple majority in the 230-member Vidhan Sabha. The Congress needs to wrest all to reach the magic figure or bag at least 22 if it hopes to win back independent, Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) legislators to its side. Simple arithmetic stacks the power equation heavily in BJP’s favour. Yet, the BJP is restive; aware that a wafer-thin majority is no guarantee of its government’s longevity. The Congress is on the edge too. Salami slicing of the Congress legislative party by the BJP cost Kamal Nath his government. Now, as Nath hopes for an electoral miracle that will propel him back to the CM’s chair, fickle political loyalties of Congress MLAs is a constant cause of speculation for another round of defections.
On October 25, while Nath was busy campaigning, the Congress lost another MLA—first-time legislator for Damoh, Rahul Lodhi—to the BJP. Ironically, Lodhi met Nath some months ago and told reporters later that he would never defect as he doesn’t wish his children to remember him as a ‘gaddar’ who betrayed the Congress. But defect he did, and that too in the middle of a poll campaign that the Congress had projected as a “referendum against traitors”.
Sources in the BJP’s MP unit say nearly a dozen Congress MLAs were in touch with the party and ready to switch sides. The party’s reliance on former Congressman Jyotiraditya Scindia for providing stability to the Chouhan administration “is a liability”, the BJP sources say. The BJP had fielded the 25 Congress turncoats in the bypolls; a decision that irked many old-time party leaders. Nearly 20 of these are Scindia loyalists. A state BJP leader says the party now needs “an exigency plan that pacifies our veterans, keeps Scindia and his men in check and also gives some cushion to our legislative strength”.
The BJP, it is learnt, has been in touch with other factional leaders of the Congress who aren’t happy with the continuing dominance of Nath and Digvijaya Singh. Sources say several Congress MLAs loyal to a former Union minister who also served as state Congress chief in the past have been feeling sidelined under Nath’s stewardship of the party. A second infusion of Congressmen into the BJP, say a senior BJP leader, will “also contain Scindia’s growing interference in the Chouhan government”.
Nath, desperate to avenge his humiliation by Scindia and Chouhan, says he knows of a “BJP plot to intimidate and buy more Congress MLAs”, but asserts that there are also several disgruntled BJP MLAs who are equally keen to join the Congress. Nath is confident that the bypolls will give an “overwhelming mandate for the Congress and against the BJP’s politics of auctioning legislators”.
Neither Nath nor his party colleagues have any answer to what makes Congress MLAs such easy and frequent prey to alleged horse-trading attempts by the BJP. State BJP spokesperson Rajneesh Agarwal dismisses such allegations, insisting that “Congress MLAs want to join us because they have seen the development politics of BJP and are inspired by our leadership… they have no faith in Nath and Singh”. If the BJP suffers heavy losses in the bypolls, the results can well be viewed as a mandate against defections—even if Chouhan manages to save his government. But for the power players of MP, the political kabaddi between the BJP and Congress is unlikely to end anytime soon.
