From all that has appeared in public statements, the India-US 2+2 dialogue in Washington went well, though what happened behind closed doors can be known only after the team returns home.
The Biden administration appeared to cajole rather than scold India into toeing Washington’s line on Russia. The Americans over the years have learned to deal with India, realising that hectoring and lecturers get New Delhi’s back up. There can be aberrations to this general rule as was evident when Daleep Singh, the US national deputy national security advisor on a recent visit to New Delhi held out the threat of consequences if India tried to circumvent sanctions put in place by Washington against Russia.
US President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Narendra Modi kickstarted the 2+2 meeting by holding a virtual conversation ahead of the event. Realising that Russia and Ukraine was on top of the US agenda, the Prime Minister decided to take that head on by declaring that India had been calling for a stop in the fighting and had suggested that both leaders -- Vladimir Putin and Zelenskyy — meet in person and hold direct talks. He then went on to talk of India’s humanitarian help to Ukraine and its concerns about civilian killings.
Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, during talks with their counterparts – secretary of state Antony Blinken and defence secretary Llyod Austin also emphasised the points made by the Prime Minister. The message was simple: India may have taken a neutral position on the war in Ukraine but it was against the massacre of civilians in Buca, and had roundly condemned it.
Speaking to reporters after the 2+2 meet, Jaishankar said, "A good part of my meeting with Secretary Blinken in the morning went to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine that has many ramifications. Even countries far away are worrying about energy security, food security, commodities prices and logistics disruption."
Antony Blinken said that Russia’s war against Ukraine was a direct attack on Ukraine’s people. "Russia’s aggression stands in stark contrast to the vision that the United States and India share for a free and open Indo-Pacific. And Russia’s actions are having a profound impact not just in Europe and in Ukraine, but around the world – for example, causing food insecurity and rising prices. Ukraine’s farmers have been forced to flee or to fight, as Russian troops intentionally destroy farmland and equipment and prevent Ukraine from exporting their wheat through Black Sea ports," Blinken said at the joint news conference.
The US sees Russia’s moves in Ukraine as an assault on democracy and liberal values. This is why the Biden administration is keen to have India, the world’s largest democracy on its side. "It's also important that democracy stand together and speak with one voice to defend the values that we share," Blinken said.
India’s purchase of oil from Russia is a topic of great interest to the US media and there was expectedly a question on that directed at Jaishankar. "We buy some energy necessary for our energy security. But I suspect, looking at figures, our purchases for the month would be less than what Europe does in an afternoon," was Jaishankar’s sharp reply. Though the hot button topic at the moment is Russia’s aggression on Ukraine and Washington’s attempt to wean New Delhi away from Moscow, India-US ties go much beyond this and are all comprehensive. India-US trade is now around $150 billion annually and growing.
China’s rising clout in Asia and its aggressive moves in the Indo-Pacific have led to a convergence of strategic interest between India and the US and India being part of the quad. "Challenges in the Indo-Pacific have also been a particular focus of our discussions. We appreciate the attention and energy devoted by the United States to the Quad. Its elevation and intensification in the last year benefits the entire Indo-Pacific. Indeed, the Quad has emerged as a powerful force of global good,’’ the minister said.
How to ensure a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific was also on the agenda. "We spoke of developments in and around Afghanistan that have made their ripples felt well beyond. Our conversations also covered recent happenings in the Indian subcontinent,’’ Jaishankar added.
At the end of the day, it is not quite clear if the US could convince India with its argument on Russia. For now, New Delhi needs Russia and while it had long begun buying defence equipment from other countries, it will take time to reduce India’s dependence on Russian military hardware. Llyod Austin has said that unlike in the past "we are willing and able to be security partner to India." But India wants to ensure that it is not tied down either by Washington or Moscow and would prefer to take decisions that would suit its self-interest.
