The Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir faced a substantial rainfall deficit of 29 per cent during the month of August. Instead of the average rainfall of 184.9 mm, the UT received just 131.1 mm. Most of this precipitation occurred in the Jammu region only, while the Kashmir Valley experienced a significant rainfall shortage.
The preceding months, June and July, initially presented a promising start with an impressive surplus of rainfall in both Kashmir and Jammu regions. July, in particular, stood out with a remarkable 35 per cent surplus in rainfall, while June reported an 8 per cent surplus. Jammu and Kashmir’s monsoon journey has been a true roller coaster ride, starting with a 27 per cent rainfall surplus in June and July (cumulative) and then settling at an 8 per cent surplus when considering the entire three-month period.
In August, Poonch district received the least rainfall, with a staggering 95 per cent deficit. It only recorded 10 mm of rainfall, far below the average of 201.3 mm. Conversely, Samba district witnessed the highest rainfall, with a 30 per cent excess. It received 416.0 mm against the normal 319.5 mm. Srinagar experienced an 88 per cent rainfall shortage, recording only 9.5 mm compared to the normal of 76.8 mm, while Jammu witnessed a 16 oer cent rainfall deficit, recording 55.6 mm less than the usual 355.8 mm. Overall, 10 districts —Srinagar, Anantnag, Budgam, Bandipora, Kupwara, Pulwama, Shopian, Doda, Poonch, and Ramban— experienced ‘large deficient’ rainfall, while five districts —Baramulla, Ganderbal, Kulgam, Rajouri, and Udhampur— saw ‘deficient’ rainfall. Three districts —Jammu, Kathua, and Reasi— recorded ‘normal’ rainfall, and Samba district experienced ‘excess’ rainfall. The data for Kishtwar district was unavailable.
As per India Meteorological department when the realised rainfall is ≥60 per cent, 20 per cent to 59 per cent, -19 per cent to +19 per cent, -59 per cent to -20 per cent, and -99 per cent to -60 per cent of long period average (LPA), the rainfall is categorised as large excess, excess, normal, deficient, and large deficient respectively.
In addition to the rainfall deficit, August saw consistently higher-than-normal average temperatures. Some days even recorded heatwaves. Srinagar recorded a maximum temperature nearly 2 degrees Celsius above the norm, with a minimum temperature approximately 1 degree Celsius above the average. The peak maximum temperature in Srinagar during the month reached 34.6 degrees Celsius on August 22, exceeding the normal threshold by 4.8 degrees Celsius, officially constituting a heatwave.
The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), a measure of drought conditions, indicated that Poonch experienced extremely dry conditions with an SPI value of -2.76 between July 27 and August 23. Other districts, including Anantnag, Shopian, Kulgam, Ramban, and Udhampur, fell into the moderately dry category with SPI values of -1.47, -1.32, -1.41, -1.3, and -1.01, respectively. Several districts, such as Kupwara, Bandipora, Baramulla, Budgam, Pulwama, Rajouri, Reasi, Doda, Kishtwar, and Jammu, reported mildly dry conditions with SPI values ranging between 0 and -0.99. Conversely, Srinagar, Ganderbal, Samba, and Kathua were in the mildly wet category, with SPI values ranging between 0 and 0.99.
Furthermore, the water level in the Jhelum River showed a significant decrease. As per the 9 a.m. reading on September 1, the Jhelum River was flowing at 0.68 feet at Sangam. At the same time, it measured 3.31 feet at Ram Munshi Bagh in Srinagar and 2.06 feet at Asham. The tributaries of the Jhelum River also experienced reduced water levels. The Vishow Nallah at Khudwani was flowing at 2.41 metres at 9 a.m. on September 1st, Rambiyara Nallah at Wachi 0.44 meters, Doodhganga Nallah at Barazulla 0.54 meters, Lidder Nallah at Batkoot 0.28 meters, and Sindh Nallah at Doderhama stood at 0.46 meters.
Unfortunately, the weather forecasts do not offer any promising signs of significant weather systems over the next 15 days. While two weak western disturbances are expected in the first week of September, they are unlikely to bring substantial rainfall to the Union Territory. Consequently, the monsoon deficit for the season is expected to increase, and the chances for monsoon revival in Jammu and Kashmir within the next 10 days appear bleak. It seems that the monsoon has already exited the region.
(The author is an Independent Weather Forecaster widely recognized as 'Kashmir Weather' across social media platforms.)
