Private weather forecasting agency Skymet has predicted a normal monsoon this year for India, with comparatively more rainfall in the second half of the season. This matches the early predictions by scientists of India Meteorological Department (IMD), who have detected signs of a favourable monsoon season this year with fading El Nino conditions and reduced snow cover over Eurasia.
The IMD will issue a monsoon forecast later this month.
Skymet said the upcoming monsoon is expected to be "normal", accounting for 102 per cent - with an error margin of 5 per cent - of the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm for the four months from June to September, according to a PTI report.
LPA of rainfall is the rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given interval (like month or season) average over a long period like 30 years, 50-years etc, as per IMD.
Rainfall between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the LPA is considered normal.
Skymet said it expects sufficiently good rains in the south, west, and northwest regions. The core monsoon rain-fed zones of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh will receive adequate rainfall.
Risk Of Deficit Rainfall In These States
Eastern states of Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, and West Bengal are at risk of deficit rainfall during the peak monsoon months of July and August, Skymet has predicted, adding that Northeast India is likely to observe less than normal rains during the first half of the season.
"El Nino is swiftly flipping over to La Nina. And, monsoon circulation tends to be stronger during La Nina years," news agency PTI quoted Jatin Singh, the managing director at Skymet, as saying.
"Also, the transition from Super El Nino to strong La Nina has historically tended to produce a decent monsoon. However, the monsoon season may start with a risk of impairment, attributable to the remnant effects of El Nino. The second half of the season will have an overwhelming edge over the primal phase," he added.
India recorded "below-average" cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in 2023, which was an El Nino year. Before 2023, India recorded "normal" and "above-normal" rainfall in the monsoon season for four years in a row.
El Nino conditions -- periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India.
IMD officials earlier this month said La Nina conditions, associated with a favourable monsoon in India, are likely to set in the second part of the season.
(with PTI inputs)
