For nearly a week now, the fast spinning political wheel of the ongoing Rajasthan roulette has left everyone guessing varied probabilities to place their bets on. Chief minister Ashok Gehlot insists his government’s majority in the 200-member Rajasthan assembly is intact. Sacked deputy chief minister Sachin Pilot and his 18 loyalists believe that their rebellion has reduced the Congress to a minority. The BJP, with its proven prowess at toppling governments, and Pilot’s fleet want a floor test to determine the numbers. In the midst of this power gamble, the media too is calling another set of bets: will Pilot remain in the Congress after declaring open rebellion against his bête noire, or will he—like many other Congressmen before him—switch to the BJP or risk announcing his own political outfit?
The Gehlot-Pilot feud had begun soon after the Congress wrested power from the BJP in the December 2018 assembly polls. Pilot, who had led the campaign as the Rajasthan Congress chief and spent the preceding five years trying to revive his down-and-out party in the desert state believed—he still does—that the CM’s chair was rightfully his. However, the majority of the Congress’s 101 MLAs supported Gehlot, as did a dozen independently elected legislators. It took then Congress president Rahul Gandhi four days to arrive at a compromise between the two contenders. Finally, given his popularity in the Congress legislative party (CLP) and acceptance among 20 other legislators who had extended support to the party to form a government, Gehlot returned as CM for a third time, with Pilot as his deputy. Later, Gehlot got six BSP legislators who were supporting his government to merge with the Congress; taking the party’s legislative strength to 107, a thin but clear majority. The BJP, with 72 MLAs and support of three others, was a long way off the simple majority mark of 101.
On July 11, following 19 months of sporadic skirmishes and progressively worsening ego clashes, Pilot decided he had played second fiddle to Gehlot for long enough. The immediate flashpoint was a summons issued to him by the Special Operations Group (SOG) tasked by Gehlot to investigate allegations of BJP’s attempts at toppling his government during last month’s Rajya Sabha polls. Media reports also claimed that the SOG had taped conversations between two BJP workers—both under arrest now—in which there was a mention of Pilot wanting to become the CM but the BJP offering him a ministerial berth at the Centre. Pilot, says a close aide, saw this as an “attempt by Gehlot to discredit him” and tell the Gandhi family that the ambitious 42-year-old deputy CM “cannot be trusted”.
Pilot left Jaipur for Delhi and several of his loyalists followed; checking in to a five star hotel in Gurgaon. Coming just four months after Jyotiraditya Scindia pulled a similar move that eventually brought down the Congress-led Kamal Nath government in Madhya Pradesh, Pilot’s sudden flight triggered rumours that he was preparing for a saffron waltz too. A day later, on July 12, as Gehlot huddled to contain the raging desert storm, Pilot told some mediapersons that he “will not join the BJP”. If there were few takers for Pilot’s assertion, it was because a close aide of the deputy CM had simultaneously circulated a message on a WhatsApp group claiming that the Tonk legislator had the support of 30 MLAs and the Gehlot government was in a minority. The mixed signalling led Congress leaders Avinash Pande, Randeep Surjewala and Ajay Maken—dispatched to Jaipur from Delhi to take stock of the crisis—to convene a media briefing at 2.30 AM and assert that 109 MLAs continued to support Gehlot and that the government had the required majority to last a full term.
Ashok Gehlot and his loyalists affirm the health of the Congress government
On July 13, Gehlot convened a meeting of the CLP in Jaipur and a whip was issued for all members to attend. Party leaders indicated informally that those who skip the meeting would be liable for disciplinary action. Meanwhile, party leaders Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, P. Chidambaram, Ahmed Patel and K.C. Venugopal reached out to Pilot, urging him to return to Jaipur for the meet and place his grievances before the central observers. Pilot refused and stayed put in Delhi. The CLP meeting passed a motion for disciplinary action against the rebels while a headcount revealed that Gehlot had the support of at least 107 MLAs. The Pilot camp shot back, calling the claim false. Sacked Rajasthan minister and Pilot loyalist Ramesh Meena tells Outlook, “If Gehlot has the majority let him prove it on the floor of the house…the whip issued for the CLP meeting has no meaning and we have not done anything against the party.”
On July 14, another CLP was convened and the party again reached out to Pilot. However, Pilot skipped the meet again. Finally, the Congress decided to up the ante. Congress media cell chief Randeep Surjewala announced that Pilot was being sacked as deputy CM and the PCC chief. Two other rebel leaders—Vishvendra Singh and Meena—were also dropped from the cabinet. The party immediately appointed minister and three-term legislator Govind Singh Dotasra as PCC chief. Surjewala blamed the BJP for conspiring to topple the Rajasthan government and said that Pilot and his loyalists had been “trapped by the BJP” to become co-conspirators. Surjewala and other Congress leaders also asserted that Pilot’s grouse over being sidelined is misplaced since in a political career of just 16 years, he had gone from being a Lok Sabha MP to Union minister and then PCC chief and deputy CM—a resume most seasoned and veteran politicians can’t boast of.
Congress chief whip Mahesh Joshi then wrote to Assembly Speaker C.P. Joshi, apprising him of the “ anti-party activities” by Pilot and his 18 loyalists and urged him to “initiate necessary proceedings” against the rebels in accordance with rules mandating conduct of legislators, setting the ball rolling for their disqualification as MLAs.
Rajasthan transport minister Pratap Singh Khachariyawas tells Outlook, “What option was left with us after Pilot and others defied the whip twice…the people of Rajasthan voted for us because they wanted the Congress to govern and not so that we hand power back to the BJP through such betrayal.” Responding to Pilot’s claim that he wasn’t joining the BJP, Khachariyawas says, “Then why are they staying in a resort and not speaking to any party leader publicly…if they wanted to just register a protest, they could have marched to the AICC office and sat on a dharna at its lawns.”
Sources say that even after C.P. Joshi issued notices to Pilot and his supporters to file a written response by 1 PM on July 17 to the Congress party’s complaint of ‘anti-party activities against them, failing which they would be disqualified as MLAs, efforts to reach out to the rebels were made. “We have said it before and are saying it again; our doors are open to them…Sachin Pilot should come and talk to us, we have a responsibility to the people of Rajasthan,” says Avinash Pande, the Congress in-charge for Rajasthan.
The Speaker’s notice and the Congress’s contention that the rebels have defied a whip are being challenged in the Rajasthan High Court. Pilot’s lawyers are Mukul Rohatgi and Harish Salve— both trusted legal eagles of the BJP in such cases. The Congress sees Pilot’s legal team as a definite pointer to his changed political affiliation.
Congress sources say Pilot made some “non-negotiable demands” to Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. “He wants the party to declare publicly that he will be made the CM a year before the next assembly polls and that Pande will be sacked immediately as Rajasthan in-charge. He also wants Gehlot to apologise to him for the humiliation of the SOG summon…how can we do any of this, especially after Gehlot has just proved that he enjoys majority support while Pilot is trying to bring down the government? This is blackmail. Besides, exactly the same summon was sent to Gehlot too,” a Congress office bearer tells Outlook.
Ashok Gehlot with new PCC president Govind Singh Dotasra
Gehlot also took Pilot to the cleaners in an angry monologue before the press. “We have proof that the deputy CM and PCC chief was conspiring with BJP to topple the government…they were discussing the amount of money to be paid…horse-trading,” Gehlot said. “These people (like Pilot) have not toiled to come up the ranks…. I have become CM after working on the ground for 40 years. They just came and became Union ministers, deputy CM, PCC chief…speaking fluent English and good looks don’t make a leader; you need to be committed to an ideology, policies, to the public.”
Pilot is yet to respond to Gehlot’s diatribe. A source close to the Tonk MLA tells Outlook, “All options are open for him…let us see what happens; we are confident that Gehlot doesn’t have the majority he is claiming to have.” Congress sources in the Gehlot camp say they are certain that Pilot will join the BJP. However, what seems to be holding him back, says a former Pilot aide now loyal to Gehlot, is that “BJP will have little need for him if he can’t topple the Congress government and in such a scenario Pilot won’t get any major post from the BJP too.”
Many Congress leaders have publicly declared that the party must make every effort to retain Pilot within its fold. “It isn’t just about letting another promising young leader walk away after Scindia, but also about the optics and effect such exits have on party workers and the common public…everyone is talking about how people are leaving the Congress and the high-command isn’t bothered; how do you expect to create confidence in the party if this continues?” asks a former Union minister.
Rahul Gandhi with Sachin Pilot
The BJP, meanwhile, has adopted a wait and watch policy. Its Rajasthan unit leaders have been meeting daily to discuss the developments while state BJP chief Satish Poonia has been taunting Gehlot for running an “ineffective government that does not have a mandate”. Gulab Chand Kataria, leader of opposition in the Rajasthan assembly tells Outlook that his party has “absolutely no role to play in Pilot’s rebellion”. But he adds, “Tomorrow if a situation arises that gives us a chance to form a government, why will we not take it? As of today, we don’t have the numbers, so there is no question of staking a claim.”
The current crisis has reignited demands within the Congress for a quick resolution to the leadership question, so that the party knows the direction it wants to take and how it wishes to fight the BJP. While this may still take some time, the immediate concern for the Congress remains whether it can still prevent Pilot—another Rahul Gandhi confidant, like Scindia—from walking away. Conversely, if Pilot stays and is placated with a plum post, how would the Congress justify this to Gehlot and his supporters? Also, the fissures within the Rajasthan Congress’s edifice are now split wide open before the BJP and the party is certain to keep hammering at them in the hope of dismantling the structure. Which way would the ball fall on the roulette wheel?
