The state government, though, is going ahead with its plan to wean farmers away from cultivating conventional crops. And if it has its way, one million hectares currently under cultivation of rice and wheat will see the sowing of other crops. Although the Central Planning Commission—asked to grant Rs 1,280 crore to fund the scheme—has expressed reservations, the Punjab government has announced it will go ahead irrespective of whether it gets funds or not. The blueprint for diversification has been drawn up by noted agronomist S.S. Johl whose report—‘Agricultural Production Pattern Adjustment Programme for Punjab’—has been forwarded to the Centre for approval.
The state government says the fallout of the green revolution has compelled it to bring about the major shift. For the last three decades, farmers were encouraged to cultivate wheat and paddy which has led to serious environmental degradation. Says Dr K.S. Aulakh, vice-chancellor of Punjab Agricultural University: "The degradation will make current production patterns (already with a stagnant growth rate of 73 per cent) unsustainable. The rice-wheat rotation cycle has high water requirement. Paddy, in particular, is seen as a culprit as it is a water guzzler."
This is where the Johl Committee report steps in. It has recommended that one million hectares under paddy-wheat should be replaced by alternative crops such as pulses and oilseeds in the next five years. This will reduce wheat production by 4.69 million tonnes and paddy production by 3.35 million tonnes, roughly 30 per cent of the 25.3 million tonnes that the state produced in 2001. The reduction, it is calculated, will save the Centre Rs 8,976 crore in procurement, handling and storage costs. To compensate the risks of shifting to new crops and their uncertain market, the farmers will have to be compensated with a subsidy of Rs 1,280 crore per year.
Once this is done, the state’s overdependence on its rice and wheat farm economy will come down. But there are those who feel the government is jumping in, eyes closed. "Even though foodgrains are rotting in the warehouses, why is it proving difficult to convince farmers about shifting to new crops?" asks Pramod Kumar, director of the Chandigarh-based Institute for Development and Communications. According to him and others, the system of minimum support price (MSP) is not in place for the alternatives to wheat and rice. With no coherent marketing strategy for pulses, maize and oilseeds (which the farmers are being convinced to switch to), disenchantment is likely to set in, he says.
With the Rs 1,280 crore central subsidy yet to come in, the state government is encouraging contract farming wherein private companies tie up with farmers to buy an assured amount of their produce. Points out Ajmer Singh, director, agriculture: "In the last one year, 90,000 acres have been shifted from paddy to basmati rice, 20,000 acres to maize and 4,000 acres to legumes." Plus, the area under pulses cultivation has gone up from 28,000 to 72,000 acres. Some experts, however, question this rationale, saying the so-called surplus foodstock is an illusion. Says Dr Aulakh, "Reducing production just because today you have foodgrains in excess of buffer stocks can jeopardise food security in the long run."
Time is clearly running out for the Punjab farmer, who, after the prosperity of the green revolution, faces the prospect of grim days ahead. While the average farmer has his apprehensions about whether shifting to new crops will work, he’s also aware that rice and wheat farming cannot continue to yield the same returns. One thing is clear—there is at least unanimity that something needs to be done. And done with some urgency.
