The BJP has fielded a heavyweight in Karhal but this does not seem to bother the Samajwadi Party as people are still rooting for 'Ghar ka Ladka', local lad Akhilesh Yadav.
The BJP has declared Union minister of state SP Singh Baghel against Akhilesh in the Karhal assembly seat in Mainpuri district where voting will take place in the third phase on February 20.
Congress has not fielded its candidate against the Samajwadi Party chief while BSP has nominated a little known Kuldeep Narayan in the constituency.
While Baghel and his party workers see a wave in the name of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and chief minister Yogi Adityanath, many people hope the area would witness rapid progress by electing "future chief minister."
Akhilesh is the chief ministerial candidate of the opposition alliance which comprises RLD and a string of caste-based regional parties.
Karhal is just four km from Akhilesh's native village Saifai in the Etawah district.
The constituency forms part of Mulayam Singh Yadav's Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat.
Though he served as the chief minister through the legislative council route and is also an MP from Azamgarh presently, Akhilesh is fighting his first assembly election from his home turf.
However, BJP leaders and supporters say that the constituency will witness 'khamosh inquilab' (silent revolution) and its candidate will emerge victorious.
Baghel has said that no area can be termed as a "fortress" or "stronghold" as personalities like Rahul Gandhi and Mamata Banerjee have also tasted defeat in their bastions.
Banerjee had lost to her former aide-turned-BJP candidate Suvendu Adhikari from Nandigram in West Bengal in 2021 assembly elections, while Gandhi was defeated in Amethi (UP) by BJP's Smiriti Irani in 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
Baghel, who as a police officer served in the security of former chief minister Mulayam Singh Yadav and who also brought him into politics, said it would be wrong to see the contest in Karhal as "one-sided".
Talking to PTI, he advised Akhilesh to think of also filing a nomination from Azamgarh.
"The seat may appear a cakewalk for Akhilesh but it is not so. Baghel ji is getting an overwhelming response and due to schemes launched by the Narendra Modi and Yogi Adityanath governments for the poor, the people want to bring BJP back," Ashutosh Tripathi, a BJP supporter, who came to Motamal Mahraj temple here said.
However, SP District President Devendra Singh Yadav, who is out for canvassing for Akhilesh and was meeting workers giving them directions at the election office at the Karhal crossing near Natthu Singh's statue appeared confident.
"There is no chance for anyone else. The election is one-sided. The victory margin (of Akhilesh) will be over 1.25 lakh. You go and talk to people, you will get to know the reality. If you see the history of this constituency, you will get to know the love and affection of people here for the SP," Yadav said.
Karhal seat has been a stronghold of the SP since 1993. Though in the 2002 assembly election, the seat went to the BJP's Sobaran Singh Yadav but he later joined SP.
The constituency has about a 3.7 lakh electorate, including 1.4 lakh (37 per cent) Yadavs, 34,000 Shakhyas (OBCs) and around 14,000 Muslims.
BJP district president Pradeep Chauhan, who is actively campaigning for Baghel said, "There is no 'goonda raj' now. BJP will win the seat. Caste is not everything. There is resentment among Yadavs also. He (Akhilesh) has ended Yadav leadership in Mainpuri."
"There will be 'khamoosh inquilab' (silent revolution) in this election," he said with confidence.
For Pradeep Gupta, a vegetable vendor at Sabji Mandi, this election is a hope for the development of the constituency.
"I think Akhileshji will win. People here want his victory as if he becomes CM, the constituency will see development. He is 'ghar ka lakda'. Only he can ensure development here."
The 29 constituencies in eight nearby districts-- Firozabad, Etah, Kasganj, Mainpuri, Etawah, Auraiya, Kannauj and Farukhabad are considered as 'Samajwadi belt'.
In 2012, when the SP formed government in the state, out of these 29 seats it had won 25 seats while it suffered losses in 2017 due to Akhilesh's tussle with uncle Shivpal Singh Yadav and got only six seats.
Now, uncle-nephew are together to prevent any division of votes.
This area is also known as 'karmbhoomi' of socialist leader late Dr Ram Manohar Lohia.
"The SP is consolidating in this area to return to power. Akhilesh's contesting from Karhal, for me, is a well-thought strategy to regain base in this area again," 75-year-old Pradeep Singh said.
Akhilesh's campaign is being monitored from his 'kothi' (house) in Saifai and former Mainpuri MP Tej Pratap Yadav is overseeing the campaign.
Political analyst Udaybhan Singh, a former Congress district President also feels that the election in Karhal will be one-sided.
"Besides Akhilesh, there are only two candidates left. So now there will be no vote cutting by independents. It will be a one-sided election for Akhilesh and it's result and his presence from here will also affect the entire region," he said.
This is the second time Baghel is contesting against Akhilesh Yadav, the first occasion was the 2009 Lok Sabha election from Firozabad.
Akhilesh Yadav will be Baghel's third poll rival from Mulayam Singh Yadav's family in the last 13 years.
The other two were Akhilesh's wife Dimple Yadav in the 2009 Firozabad Lok Sabha by-election and Mulayam's cousin Ram Gopal Yadav's son Akshay in the 2014 Lok Sabha election from Firozabad.
Baghel had lost on earlier occasions.
