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When Manmohan Singh’s Prediction On The Effect Of Demonetisation On GDP Came True

The acclaimed economist had predicted that demonetisation would bring the GDP of the country down by 2 per cent.

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When Manmohan Singh’s Prediction On The Effect Of Demonetisation On GDP Came True
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Former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's prophecy on the decline in the GDP due to demonetisation came true, almost uncannily. 

The acclaimed economist had predicted that demonetisation would bring the GDP of the country down by 2 per cent. 

The GDP during April-June of financial year 2017-18 in fact grew slower at 5.7 per cent, a three year low and 2.2 per cent decline from April-June quarter 2016-17 when it stood on 7.9 per cent. 

The national income data released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) for the first quarter is lowest during the Narendra Modi-led government's regime, which assumed office in May 2014.

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley who has so far been defending the current economics had said "we are certainly concerned" about the recent figures.

The statistics came days after RBI revealed 99 per cent of the demonetised notes were deposited and the finance ministry saying a 'significant portion' of it could be black money. 

Ironically, the Prime Minister, when announcing the sudden decision to demonetise, promised it would curb black money. 

Days after Modi announced the sudden decision to haul out nearly 86 per cent of currency out of the system by pronouncing Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes as illegal tender, his predecessor spoke about the economic consequences of the decision in Rajya Sabha Speech. 

Watch the speech here-

Singh had then foreseen a drop of two per cent in the Gross Domestic Product.

In the Rajya Sabha on 24 November 2016 during debate on demonetisation Manmohan Singh said: “My own feeling is that the national income, that is the GDP, can decline by about 2 per cent as a result of what has been done. This is an underestimate, not an overestimate.”

The former PM had called demonetisation a 'monumental misnmanagement failure', a 'case of organised loot and legalized plunder of the common people'. 

On the centre's request to people to face 'short-term' inconvenience for long-term gains, Singh  gave a tongue-in-cheek remark. 

"Even those who say this measure (demonetisation) will do no harm or will cause distress in the short run, but is in the interest of the country in the long run, I am reminded of John Keynes, who once said "In the long run, we are all dead"."