There has been a significant buzz around the Indian National Congress in the last couple of months. It is as if someone has jerked the party out of a long stupor. The Congress has realised that if it continues to diminish, it will be wiped out beyond repair. The grand old party is working its way to regain the appeal and trust it once enjoyed with the Indian masses. The recent statement of its communications chief, Jairam Ramesh, that a strong Congress is an ‘important pillar’ in the Opposition unity, therefore, holds value. One can sniff the Congress’s desperation to remain relevant in the Opposition and revive itself.
Two recent events illustrate how the Congress has started working on reviving its cadre and is trying to change public perception. First, the display of recent elections for the Congress presidentship. The party wanted the election to happen in full media glare so that it could exhibit the existence of internal democracy and dispel claims made to the contrary. A president outside the Gandhi family, at least symbolically, established that the Gandhis’ dominance over the party is receding. Speaking to Outlook, a Congress worker says, “The fact that Shashi Tharoor got around a thousand votes established that the Congress is a democratic party, unlike the BJP.”
Second, the ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’ has galvanised the party into action like never before. Many believe that it could be a turning point for the party as it is helping Rahul Gandhi burnish his image as an accessible and acceptable leader of the masses. Though it is yet to be seen how it turns out in terms of votes it would garner, the yatra has infused the party with a new zeal and if it yields enough electoral dividends for the party, the Congress may have more bargaining power. Some insiders claim that the party is aiming for at least 200 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, with a special focus on states like Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Haryana and Uttarakhand, among others, where it is in a close fight with the BJP and other regional parties.
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However, the greatest challenge for the Congress is the competition among regional parties, which want more say at the Centre, to secure more bargaining power by winning as many seats as they can in their respective home states. After all, it is the number of seats that a party has which determines the bargaining power it will enjoy in any alliance. Parties like KCR’s Bharat Rashtra Samithi in Telangana, the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) in Maharashtra, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Janata Dal (United) (JD-U) in Bihar and the Samajwadi Party (SP) in Uttar Pradesh have strengthened themselves in the last three decades on their home turf.
Second, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which has gnawed away the Congress vote in states like Punjab, is posing another strong challenge. The low visibility of the Congress ahead of the assembly elections in Gujarat, where the party had won 77 seats in 2017, is intriguing. If the AAP gets more seats than the Congress in Gujarat, it will further push the party to a disadvantaged position as a key player in the Opposition against the BJP.
Despite the challenges, the Congress is seen to be an important player in the opposition ranks. Observes Professor Manindra Nath Thakur of Jawaharlal Nehru University, “Except for Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal, the Congress has significant say in almost every state. It is either in power or a crucial part of the Opposition.” Therefore, at least for the next 10 years, unless the AAP does more damage to the Congress, “it will remain an important player”.
As Thakur points out, it will be interesting to see how the Congress wins popular support in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal, because these states will be crucial for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and will determine how much bargaining capacity the party will have.
The various, smaller, caste-based political outfits in Uttar Pradesh have only worked to benefit the BJP, as it has successfully eroded the support base of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). No wonder then that the assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh saw the BSP secure only one seat, whereas the Congress’s tally fell to just two. The BJP has also dented the SP’s caste alliances. Now, both the SP and the Congress are left with fewer options in the state. It all depends on how social engineering comes into play in the 2024 general elections. Moreover, the SP leadership is wary of forming alliance with the Congress given the 2019 debacle. In the present circumstances, it is highly unlikely that the Congress would be able to regain the lost ground in the state in the next Lok Sabha elections.
In Bihar, the Congress is an important player in the Grand Alliance of JD(U), RJD and Congress, which is in power there. Despite the challenges its alliance partners the JD(U) and the RJD pose to it, the Congress is pinning its hopes on Bihar to revive its fortunes and give it enough elbow room for future manoeuvring. Relying on its existing cadre base in the state, the party is planning to launch a 1,200-km long march, a la the ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’, from Banka to Bodh Gaya against the ‘communal agenda of the BJP’, on December 28.
Bereft of any mass leader after the demise of former chief minister Vilasrao Deshmukh in 2012, the scenario in Maharashtra remains dismal for the party. With its alliance with the Shiv Sena and the NCP doddering after the vertical split of the Shiv Sena, the Congress may face another challenge as the Uddhav Thackeray faction of the Shiv Sena is emerging as another claimant to secular votes in the state.
In addition, the Congress lacks a credible face in many states. Political observers suggest that the party high command is ‘stiff’ and does not communicate with the local leadership. Therefore, the leadership lacks an understanding of regional aspirations. To add to its woes, there are many leaders who nurture big ambitions but are reluctant to connect with the masses. This has made the cadre of the party on the ground almost dysfunctional.
Thus, the ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’ gains significance in the sense that it offers ideological clarity to the party and may help re-vitalise the cadre. In order to emerge as a challenge to the BJP, the Congress needs to evolve itself into a credible force.
(This appeared in the print edition as "A Lot of Ground to Cover")
