Before Gen Musharraf arrives, the government should clear its mind. Kashmir is abilateral dispute but a multilateral issue. India and Pakistan are nuclear powers thathave had three wars and one mini-war. Global concern over averting the danger of nuclearwar is justified.
A solution on Kashmir therefore has to take into account the interests of the bigpowers. What do the big powers want?
America wants a balance of power in Asia. Together, India and Pakistan could balanceChina. At the same time, America wants China to endorse a Kashmir solution. President Bushwants to engage with China to promote American business. He wants to contain the People'sLiberation Army to safeguard American security.
Russia wants to end Pakistan's support to Islamic fundamentalism. This supportthreatens Chechnya. Russia would like to revive its influence in Central Asia. It wouldlike overland trade with a stable Pakistan and India.
China would like India and Pakistan to remain divided. But China knows that possessionof nuclear weapons has made normalisation of ties between India and Pakistan necessary.China would therefore tolerate normalisation between India and Pakistan, but without anyspecial relationship between them. That would promote China's commercial interestsand perpetuate its dominant Asian status.
The apparent solution that would satisfy these varied interests might be turningKashmir's Line of Control into an international border. Indians would like this.Outlook recommended this solution. It is a solution fraught with danger.
The people of Kashmir would continue to feel cheated. The Valley would continue tosimmer. Hardliners in Pakistan could easily overthrow Musharraf and overturn theagreement. The agreement would avoid war without restoring brotherhood between India andPakistan. Foreign powers could continue to divide and rule the subcontinent.
India should seek nothing less than joint defence with Pakistan, a common market andfree movement of labour and capital. Given these, the people of Kashmir should be allowedself-determination. If agreement emerges, it will be sudden. Vajpayee and Musharraf shouldunderstand this.
Governments may propose. People will dispose. Ground realities will assert themselves.Already, mqm leader Altaf Hussain wants to meet Vajpayee. He questions the Partition.Already, the people of Ladakh demand Union Territory status. More demands will follow. Thewhole subcontinent wants a new deal. South Asia seems ripe for big changes.
Life doesn't flow the same way,
Old beliefs have had their day,
Forget the thoughts of yesterday—
A new world has come to stay.
