America and China are working in concert to stabilise South Asia. To achieve this, the Kashmir dispute must be resolved. The Bush caucus would have welcomed Vajpayee's Beijing visit because America cannot bend Pakistan to its will without confronting China. The Bush caucus seeks cooperation, not confrontation, with China.
This is how the dispute most likely will be resolved. Vajpayee has satisfied China on Sikkim, Tibet, the methodology for solving the boundary dispute, and ties for expanding trade. In return, China could oblige America by persuading Pakistan to check cross-border terrorism.
After meeting Musharraf, President Bush, in his prepared statement, said: "In our meeting we discussed the need to address extremism and cross-border infiltration; I assured the President that the United States will do all we can to promote peace."
So, if Musharraf stops infiltration, the US will persuade India on Kashmir. If Musharraf delivers, hefty aid follows. The $3 billion promised being the appetiser.
How will Kashmir be resolved? It could be any formula—the LoC as an international border, greater autonomy, soft borders, or some form of self-determination. Cross-border terrorism could end because China would cooperate with America. Peace in Kashmir therefore could be imminent. The peace process could be lengthy. This process would be under the informal tutelage of America and China. The prospect of having a joint defence and common market with Pakistan, as this column frequently advocated, would forever end. South Asian peace and stability would be monitored by America and China. All parties would perceive gain in this.
South Asia would stabilise without straining the Sino-American strategic alliance, in place since the days of President Richard Nixon. The alliance architect, Henry Kissinger, is influential with the Bush caucus. America permits a 1:5 adverse trade balance with China by importing low-tech Chinese products. It would have little trade rivalry with China in South Asia.
China will dominate the South Asian market; have defence pacts with Pakistan and Bangladesh, defence cooperation with India! Pakistan would avert a deep economic crisis. India would get respite from terrorism. Vajpayee could sweep the polls. Indians want peace. They won't miss national independence because our governments never exercised it. They won't miss honour because our governments never displayed it.
