Last month this column said the BJP and the Congress seem indispensable focal points for a two-coalition, and not two-party, system. Also, the coalition that first converts itself into a federation, accepting a common symbol for parliamentary elections, will carry the day. The recent assembly poll results have not negated this view.
Laloo Yadav and Mayawati for the Congress, and Mulayam Singh and O.P. Chautala for the BJP, acted as adjuncts and spoilers—helping their respective allies instead of being serious contenders. Even the Naxalites in tribal Chhattisgarh, by enforcing a poll boycott on their followers who traditionally voted Congress, acted as spoilers to help the BJP. Hence, 20 traditionally Congress tribal seats shifted to the BJP to ensure Ajit Jogi's defeat. Surely the Naxalites weren't so naive as to be unaware of the boycott's consequences!
After the Gujarat polls, the Congress abandoned what should have been its own agenda. It opted for soft Hindutva to counter the BJP. The BJP itself shrewdly abandoned Hindutva. It adopted development as the winning formula. It will consolidate this trend. It won't change a winning strategy before Lok Sabha elections in 2004.
The Congressmen are shattered. Do they have any future? They do. But does the Congress itself have a future? That depends. Congress CMs still rule Himachal, Punjab, Delhi, Uttaranchal, Karnataka, Kerala, Pondichery, Assam, Manipur and Maharashtra. It is a formidable presence to build upon. But the Congress needs to introspect and face political realities. Its real problem is not formulating an effective agenda to reform the system and expose the BJP. Its real problem is how to retrace its steps and undo its past.
The British created the Congress in the late 19th century to encourage Indian participation in the system. By the 1920s, it was a reform movement seeking greater Indian representation in the administration. After 1929, it became a freedom movement demanding total independence. It was federal, with both Muslim League and Akalis part of its movement. In '37, Jinnah felt betrayed by Nehru and the seeds were sown for Pakistan. In '52, the Congress became a party when its Akali candidates were forced to leave their own party and join it. After Indira Gandhi became PM, it became a dynasty. Thus the Congress travelled from movement to party to dynasty. To revive itself, it must again become a federation, launch a movement to undo the spirit of Partition. It must recognise its past historical mistakes. That's a tall order. Can the party do it? If not, Congressmen may survive in new guises. The Congress itself will disappear.
