This is being written during the SAARC summit. It will appear when the BJP formally decides about the timing of the general elections. Going by media reports and the frenetic activity of political parties, it's all over bar the shouting. The polls will be held in April-May.
Or will they? Many setbacks and enforced isolation have given this columnist a thick skin. He is used to looking foolish. Once again, therefore, he will stick his neck out and against all odds predict that the elections will be held around October.
An early election would be irrational and self-defeating. The argument put forward by loyalists of the main proponent of early polls, L.K. Advani, is that BJP victories in the recent state elections, the zooming sensex, and the buoyant economy have created a feelgood factor that must be exploited. Therefore, better now than October.
The flaw in this reasoning emanates from two factors. First, a close look at the recent electoral victories of the BJP reveals that they were caused less by a spurt in the BJP's vote tally, and more by spoilers like Mulayam Singh and Chautala queering the pitch for the Congress.
Secondly, the BJP does not have a presence in all the states. In those that it does, it peaked during the last general elections. Therefore, however strong the feel-good factor, the BJP's tally in those states can only decrease. The same holds true of its NDA allies. As for states in which the BJP does not have a strong organisational presence, a feelgood factor cannot be translated into parliamentary seats. Only a great wave might do that. On present reckoning, the BJP and its NDA allies could lose between 20 to 50 seats.
There is an even more compelling reason for the BJP to scuttle an early poll. The government is stable. The prime minister's personal stock is at its highest. He has six months to go for clinching an irreversible breakthrough in peace talks with Pakistan. Gen Musharraf has just obtained a mandate to continue as president till 2007. He has given a firm commitment that he would resign from his army post next year. The conditions for achieving peace between India and Pakistan have never been more propitious. Will the PM jeopardise all this to seek a mid-term poll that cannot guarantee even the BJP's present strength?
An early poll is a daft proposition. If it does nevertheless take place, we should get to know who really is daft—the BJP or this columnist.
