Natwar Singh is a man in a hurry. He seems to be carrying out an agenda. Does Natwar Singh himself know whose interests he would be serving if his agenda was implemented?
In his first press conference as the external affairs minister, he announced the need for a Common Nuclear Doctrine between China, India and Pakistan. A journalist asked him to spell out the doctrine. Natwar Singh replied that it was still at "a nascent philosophical stage". In other words, it has not been formulated. It later transpired that it had not even been discussed with the PM or cabinet colleagues. Then why announce a proposal that had been neither discussed nor formulated? Government spin doctors said that the proposal was a follow-up on Rajiv Gandhi's goal of creating a nuclear-free world.
Nonsense! In pursuit of Rajiv Gandhi's goal, India's nuclear leverage could have been used in the initial stages to pressure the five nuclear powers for total, phased disarmament under UN control. After Pakistan became a nuclear power, that leverage was lost. It can be reclaimed only if India and Pakistan become partners in a joint nuclear defence system.
China is a member of the big five. It is in a different league. It seeks nuclear deterrence against America. It remained silent over Natwar Singh's proposal. But Pakistan welcomed Natwar's proposal, calling it "new and innovative". It defies belief that Pakistan would have said that without a nod from China, its main benefactor for nuclear technology and missiles. General Musharraf further said India and Pakistan should make South Asia an N-free zone. Could anything please China more?
Natwar Singh's offer therefore is not relevant to nuclear weapons but to the aim of bringing China into South Asian affairs. On May 29, China expressed its readiness to enter SAARC. Think-tanks in Nepal, Pakistan and Bangladesh were already urging China's entry in order to "balance India's domination of SAARC". Some Indian policymakers, with encouragement from pro-China elements in the West, believe that China could help peacefully legitimise the status quo in Kashmir.
This would run counter to Vajpayee's proposal of creating a South Asian Union on the lines of Europe. In the context of that arrangement, India could countenance a bold Kashmir solution acceptable to Pakistan.
India therefore can seek stability and a Kashmir status quo under Chinese hegemony. Or it can seek South Asian unity by conceding self-determination to Kashmir. It can play safe on its knees or take risks on its feet. It is for India to choose.
(Puri can be reached at rajinderpuri2000@yahoo.com)
