L.K. Advani staged his iron-man performance for TV cameras. Allowing cameramen to cover the national executive proceedings was unprecedented. Uma Bharati's reaction caught him off-guard. But did Advani's attack catch Uma off-guard? Had the RSS alerted her? Was her "spontaneous" response prepared? Who can tell? Going from the national executive straight to the RSS headquarters for a three-hour meeting with Ram Madhav was curious.
Consider Uma's options. When George Fernandes and Chandra Shekhar formed an anti-Sonia front, Advani prevented Uma from attending it. The RSS gave her permission to send a supportive message. Remember, Fernandes continues to maintain close contact with the RSS every step of the way. That front offers one option.
Uma's clout with the OBC voters would boost any new front. If a disgruntled Kalyan Singh could join her, so much the better. The identity of a new group that could conceivably enter the front already exists. Balraj Madhok and Praful Goradia revived the Jan Sangh. The VHP blessed them. After forming the Jan Sangh, Madhok called on RSS leaders.
So can an anti-Congress, anti-BJP third front be formed? It's anyone's guess. But it is worth watching the increasing belligerence of the Leftists and DMK within the UPA. Watch also the big business friends of Mulayam Singh Yadav who aren't unaware of the UPA government sharpening knives against them.
The second possibility is for a grassroots revolt by district presidents of the BJP. Uma's letter lamenting that "a daughter had been expelled" was intended to encourage that. If the revolt occurs, Advani could be replaced. Meanwhile, the Kanchi Shankaracharya's arrest could ignite a Hindutva agitation. Uma is tailor-made to lead it. Already, the VHP calls Advani a stopgap arrangement.
The third possibility is for Uma to eat humble pie and crawl back to the BJP, thereby destroying her credibility forever.
To predict the BJP's future would be foolhardy. But this columnist did point out the advantage of splitting the BJP when the NDA was in power. RSS leaders had just patched up differences between Vajpayee and Advani. The latter those days represented the interests of the VHP within the BJP. On November 18, '02, Bull's Eye wrote: "By attempting a patchwork, tattered unity, the leaders in government are throwing away a great opportunity. A formal split would polarise the nation's polity. The RSS would have relations with both parties. Experience tells us that whenever a government splits, Opposition parties join one side or the other."
The BJP was then in power. Now it's in the wilderness. Things have changed. Or have they?
(Puri can be reached at rajinderpuri2000@yahoo.com)
