Years ago, I attended a private dinner at an Indian diplomat's house in London. Also present was the late Bunderovsky, a Soviet specialist on Asian affairs and a frequent visitor to India. A young British diplomat asked if the Soviet Union could eventually disappear like the British Empire. Bunderovsky exploded. "You are foolish, you know nothing," he roared. Two months later, the rapid collapse of the Soviet Union started.
The moral of the tale is that accidents not only happen to the other guy. It is a moral that America should heed. In his second term, President George Bush appears invincible. That is precisely why his administration should be very, very cautious.
America is more fragile than it looks. Not since its civil war has America been as bitterly polarised as it is today. A study of maps of the civil war and of the second Bush victory show amazing similarity. The pro-slavery states conform almost exactly to the pro-Bush states. Bush gained Ohio where a recount will take place.
What could happen if another 9/11 occurs? Michael Scheur was the CIA official dealing with counter-terrorism. He offered ten options for catching Osama bin Laden. He was ignored. He recently quit in disgust. He believes that Al Qaeda can create another 9/11 in America. "I don't believe in inevitability," he told an interviewer. "But I think it's pretty close to being inevitable. A nuclear weapon of some dimension, whether it's actually a nuclear weapon, or a dirty bomb, or some kind of radiological device. Yes, I think it's probably a near thing."
A major terrorist strike inside America cannot therefore be ruled out. If it happens, what would be the fallout? Two aspects deserve consideration: the reaction among Americans and the reaction among people worldwide.
The fact that an emotive issue has polarised American states as it did during the civil war 150 years ago calls for serious reflection. What would the intensity of the blame game be if a disaster occurs? Would all Americans unite as they did after 9/11? Or would bitter recriminations escalate to revolt and to collapse of the constitutional process? The mere idea was laughable a few years ago. Now one should think the unthinkable. Could America actually witness a coup or disintegration? The world's reaction if a second 9/11 occurs is, on the other hand, predictable. In 2001, almost the whole world mourned. Now large sections might actually gloat.
That is why all Americans should reflect. American stakes are inordinately high.
(Puri can be reached at rajinderpuri2000@yahoo.com)
