2005 may alter the world. Two trends suggest this. First, America's isolation continues unabated. Secondly, a genuine war against terrorism may replace the present phony war. Till now, the subversive US-China axis comprising corporate America and China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) was complicit in N-proliferation and terrorism. Two examples should suffice.
According to the New York Times of December 26, '04, the CIA twice prevented the arrest of Pakistan's rogue nuclear scientist Dr A.Q. Khan by Dutch authorities because he was "valuable as an unwitting guide to the nuclear underworld". In the early '80s, the CIA monitored Khan in Beijing when China provided him blueprints of an N-bomb usable in missiles. Yet the US did nothing.
The Wall Street Journal of October 10, 2001, reported that the FBI confirmed that ISI chief Lt Gen Mahmud Ahmed ordered payment of $1,00,000 to 9/11 terrorist Mohammed Atta in the US. On 9/11 itself, the PLA had signed an agreement with the Osama-backed Taliban government. Yet America did nothing.
After Jiang Zemin's retirement, things changed. Russia and China got together. As a terrorist target, Russia would have insisted on China's commitment against terrorism. Both nations solved their boundary dispute, is planning joint military exercises, and China will get a stake in Russia's Yukos Oil. Venezuela, after acquiring Russian Mig 29 SMTS equipped with deadly anti-ship cruise missiles, has joined them. So has Brazil. India and China will hold joint exercises against terrorism. Russia will supply nuclear fuel to Iran.
An oil war is under way too. China is squeezing out America from all sources of supply. It has cornered one-third of Canadian oil, signed a US $3.5 billion pipeline agreement with Kazakhstan, a mega-gas deal worth US $100 billion with Iran, and US $3 billion worth gas-related deals with Venezuela.
Europe sulks. Even Israel drifts away. The US is pressuring Israel not to upgrade defence equipment it had sold to China earlier. Prime Minister Sharon, meanwhile, has promptly accepted China's invitation to visit Beijing. The Israeli media has claimed—although the Pentagon denies it—that US defence under secretary Douglas Feith demanded Israeli defence ministry director-general Amos Yaron's resignation.
President Bush, acting as the Lone Ranger, created this situation. How can he return to the driver's seat? Action against North Korea or Iran risks Russo-Chinese intervention. Al Qaeda in Pakistan is the soft target. But even with US help, can Musharraf contain the jehadis? Or will Pakistan become another Iraq? President Bush needs to reverse policies. Would he rather save face or save America? 2005 will tell us.
(Puri can be reached at rajinderpuri2000@yahoo.com)
