King Gyanendra has lifted Nepal's Emergency. That paves the way for dialogue. The king is acting purposefully to a well-crafted script. At Jakarta, he unilaterally announced that India would resume arms to Nepal. The Indian government hemmed and hawed. Then it lamely said that the king had promised restoration of democracy "sooner rather than later."
Last week, the king arrested former PM Deuba, making the Indian government look sillier. It also dimmed chances of Indian arms for Nepal. But is Gyanendra really interested in Indian arms? He has other sources. He simply humiliated India. He would not do that without powerful backing. By common consent, the king's patron is China. But here discrimination is required. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao just ended a successful Indian visit. Subsequent developments in Nepal compel India to become wary of China. Would Wen deliberately cloud the goodwill his visit generated? If not, someone else in China is doing it. That someone influences Gyanendra.
This column earlier disclosed the close links between Gyanendra and the Maoists decades ago. Recently, it had suggested that China would broker peace between the king and the Maoists after Nepal's democratic parties became irrelevant and the Maoists occupied opposition space. That would be the time for Gyanendra and the Maoists to settle. Gyanendra could be king while Maoists wield power. On February 13, 2003, Maoist leader Prachanda wrote: "We would be delighted if the masses won their rights through dialogue. We shall endeavour to the maximum to advance political settlement through peaceful dialogue." Recall China's simultaneous links with Cambodia's Prince Norodom and Pol Pot.
The Maoists are part of the Chicago-based Revolutionary Internationalist Movement (RIM) headed by Bob Avakian. RIM opposes Deng Xiaoping and supports Mao. China's leaders are themselves cool towards Mao. Significantly, Wen bypassed Mao while listing China's illustrious leaders to Indian students. There are also the JNU-educated Maoist leaders. They act as the movement's voices. Real power rests with armed insurgents led by Prachanda, seemingly directed by China's PLA. If required, the Indo-centric faction can be eliminated. Gyanendra had prophesised a split among the Maoists. Deputy leader Baburam Bhattarai, educated in JNU, resigned this week to vindicate him.
India should deal cautiously with Chinese leaders. Their visible sincerity is not enough. Can they, will they deliver? One may have to witness powerful hiccups inside China before its internal contradictions are resolved.
(Puri can be reached at rajinderpuri2000@yahoo.com)
