Bull's Eye

For the first time in 27 years, the Iranian president wrote aletter to the US president. It merits appraisal. The 18-page letter appeals to the sentiments of most Americans at a time when public support for President Bush is at its lowest. References to Jesus Christ and God are frequent. Why was the letter sent now? The late Shah of Iran’s US-based son Reza Pahlavi has threatened a Tehran regime change within months through the help of Iranian activists. Has this had effect?

Earlier, President Ahmadinejad surprised the world by stating that Iran was ready to discuss Iraq peace with America. A quiet US-Iran dialogue on Iraq’s future had continued for years. The nuclear crisis was a red herring. That is why the flashpoint over Iran’s nuclear policy keeps being postponed. Now, Iraq’s prime minister-designate has announced that a new Iraqi government is imminent. The quiet US-Iranian dialogue seems to have borne fruit. A new Iraqi government that resolves Sunni-Shiite-Kurdish differences would facilitate US troop withdrawal from Iraq.

If this is so, Ahmadinejad’s letter to Bush signals readiness for a comprehensive dialogue with America. Both West Asia’s future and differences between the West and Islamic nations could be discussed.

When Iran’s president first made his wild statements against Israel, this column had pointed out in the February 6 issue that he was upstaging Osama bin Laden who had become a spokesman of radical Islam. Ahmadinejad was reclaiming for the Shiites leadership of radical Islam first occupied by Ayatollah Khomeini and later usurped by Osama who belongs to the Wahabi Sunnis. With step after measured step, in a carefully choreographed dance, isn’t Ahmadinejad reaching the point of denouement—a clinching dialogue with the West?

President Bush is hardly in a position to discuss fundamental issues with anybody representing Islam. Not only is his approval rating lowest, but theCIA is mauling the White House for unfairly blaming it for intelligence failures related to Iraq. The possibility that a Democratic electoral victory in Congress this November could result in an impeachment of President Bush cannot be ruled out. So, is Bush a useless lame-duck incumbent? Not necessarily.

Osama has demanded the execution of President Musharraf in Pakistan. US sources claim Osama is inside Pakistan. Divisions inside Pakistan are sharpening. Is it approaching a showdown? If Osama is eliminated this summer, Bush could sweep the November election. That is why this column repeatedly stated: the next likely flashpoint could be Pakistan, not Iran.