Sonia Gandhi’s somersault on the clarification of her ‘merchants of death’ remark was equally intriguing. Kapil Sibal had explained that Soniaji was not referring to Narendra Modi personally. But, on Soniaji’s behalf, Abhishek Singhvi emphasised that Soniaji had specifically targeted Modi. Why the turnaround? Was it because the Congress, mistakenly or otherwise, scented victory?
Equally symptomatic was the eve-of-poll resignation by former BJP chief minister Suresh Mehta. Did Mehta’s last-minute resignation indicate a decisive shift in electoral fortunes? In terms of political mass base, Suresh Mehta is...well, comparable to a mouse. His strength came from RSS support. So, did he jump mouse-like because he thought the ship was sinking? Significantly, in his resignation statement, Mehta criticised not only Modi but also L.K. Advani. Why Advani? Was Mehta reflecting RSS misgivings about BJP’s Iron Man?
Being distant from the field makes prognosis difficult. One clutches at such straws to discern trends. But the final result may well hinge on one crucial factor: the extent to which RSS permits cross-voting. Some inner-party revolt against Modi does exist. The question is: how much? If the poll boils down to individual charisma versus vote mobilisation by loyal cadres, would charisma override RSS discipline? Would even Hitler have obtained votes on sheer magnetism minus committed cadres?
But while it is tough to pick the winner, it may be less risky to spot the eventual loser. It could well be Advani. Reasoning for this is simple. If Modi wins, it will be but a matter of time before he devours Advani. Arun Shourie has already publicly hailed Modi as the next leader. Arun Jaitley is Modi’s close advisor. A victorious Modi would not delay consolidating generation-next leaders. He himself seems like someone in a hurry for the top spot at the Centre.
If Modi loses, there is a strong possibility of the RSS turning turtle to hold Advani responsible for mismanagement as leader of the Opposition. Misgivings about Advani among powerful RSS sections run deep. His appointment as the BJP prime ministerial candidate may not therefore end Advani’s long climb. It may in fact signal the start of its toughest phase.
(Puri can be reached at rajinderpuri2000@yahoo.com)
