The conjecture was based on the following factors. First, that US presidents in their second terms tend to strike an independent course by ignoring powerful vested interests. Bush, in his second term, dumped several key players who masterminded the Iraq war in his first term. Also, Bush started talking about a new Middle East. He revealed intent to create a sovereign Palestine state, to stabilise Iraq sufficiently for starting a troop pullout, and to normalise relations with Iran through cooperation for peace in Iraq. The rhetoric over Iran’s nuke crisis was dismissed by this scribe as a smokescreen to cover secret US-Iranian parleys on Iraq. A settlement in Iraq could also lead to better relations between Sunni and Shiite Muslims, between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Finally, the Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan had to be neutralised.
All this was a tall order. Is it happening?
The state department’s No. 3, William Burns, will talk directly with senior Iranian officials. The US has established for the first time since 1979 a diplomatic presence in Teheran. President Ahmadinejad has said he is not averse to peace talks with the US. Hooshang Amirahmadi, president of the American Iranian Council, after meeting Ahmadinejad’s high-ranking officials in Iran, said: "It is not true that they will not negotiate with Bush and are waiting for Obama...if they receive a proposal from the Bush government tomorrow, they are willing to consider it."
Meanwhile, Israel has established contact with Syria. Israel has negotiated a ceasefire and prisoner-swap with Hezbollah. Israel has also agreed with Hamas on a ceasefire. Israeli President Olmert believes peace prospects with the Palestinians have never been so bright. The Al Fatah leader Mohammed Abbas sang the same tune as Olmert in a conference hosted by France’s President Sarkozy, which both attended. President Bush has already announced he will reduce US troops in Iraq by year’s end.
American and NATO troops are poised to strike inside Pakistan against pro-Al Qaeda elements among the Taliban. Senior Pakistani politicians are studying grievances of Baluchistan and NWFP to evolve an acceptable peace formula.
Only blind pessimists would dismiss these trends as inconsequential. The next three months could well be dramatic.
(Puri can be reached at rajinderpuri2000@yahoo.com)
