Marking the passage of time is such a well-worn practice that most cliches start sounding banal after a while. Haven’t walls come down before, or can’t the term “path-breaking” be applied to 2001, 1991, or 1981 in equal measure, or who cares about a certain Niira Radia a year down the road? Human memory, as many know by now, is frail and prone to delusions of grandeur. Predictions are dangerous. For any doubt or clarification, there’s Google, and beyond there’s Wikipedia, where history is written and rewritten in a hurry, multi-layered with conspiracy theories that add fresh dimensions to how we remember.
Oh, how one would like to go ahead in time to look back at 2011 with hindsight. Really. Right now, in its dying days, 2011 appears to be one of those multi-coloured magical years where all the cliches ring true. ‘Poriborton’ is in the air, and Arab Spring isn’t a global mineral water brand. Everyone and their wife—from city-slicker to farmer to wholesaler—had something to protest about, some of them did so successfully. Like elsewhere in the world, a thus far resilient people’s movement in India (targeting corruption, primarily) continues to upset the unsteady applecart.
A corruption-tainted UPA government has not made one right step this year, bumbling along like a party in opposition, with ineffectual leadership, illnesses and suicidal infighting. The real Opposition, meanwhile, sits pretty—all the work for it is being done by the government. And in the middle of all this unfolded 2011’s grand carnival—a slew of agitations, arrests, bails, fasts, accusations, counter-charges, suspended legislations that played out with a breathless regularity that makes an F1 race seem humdrum. There’s even a sari-clad yogi—and, in another instance, blue chewing gum—somewhere in the picture. Nostradamus would have approved.
If civil society-led discourse in India appears fluid and alive with possibility (even the void-creating deaths in 2011 point to something special), there’s another, opposite view. There are far too many voices screaming that India is looking shaky, and its much-vaunted economic story is gravely under threat. The storyline for now has shifted from ‘India has problems, but the long-term view is fine’ to ‘India is in deep trouble’. Business-led proponents by and large blame government inaction for the mess. The market, that fickle master of our nation’s destiny, is already signalling a tough year ahead.
The key to understanding 2012 lies in figuring out which of these two narratives—civil society’s or those backing the India story—would prevail. Civil society has grown in stature in recent years, becoming a participative player with government in some of the big debates of the day. This government has reached out to NGOs, increasing their power—at the cost of ignoring entrepreneurial India. The current Anna agitation (where the middle class plays a dominant role) puts pressure on this ideal relationship. While the government continues to be accommodative, it is visibly searching for “innovative” ways to reassert its authority. Given the state of drift, propagators of both narratives are running riot.
What we do know is that the fight against corruption continues to build up momentum, and has actually been the single driving force leading the Team Anna movement. This is significant, given that all big scams actually broke in 2010—we watched the fallout in 2011, from Raja to Kalmadi. The 2G scam case, being heard regularly in the court of special judge O.P. Saini, continues to attract attention. Despite a pervasive view that the “big guns” have got away, there continues to be great interest in the case. The public anger (perceived or otherwise) is such that some have warned of a lynch mob mentality. Will justice be finally delivered? That’ll be one of the big answers of 2012, and will drive the future of the anti-corruption movement.
One of the negative sides of this battle is how the state hits back, openly as well as subversively. As civil society grew in power, so did the “exposes” about them—while there are no different standards for those who aspire to speak for the public at large, elements of these stories sounded suspiciously like a witch-hunt. Coupled with an attack on the media (which has been playing a combative role in giving oxygen to the likes of Team Anna), the UPA government has targeted social networking sites as well as other technologies (2011 was also the year of the war of attrition for access to RIM’s Blackberry services). With the UPA’s pet Aadhar project also facing flak from within the government and by privacy advocates, 2011 may have set the stage for more intrusion into citizen’s lives.
And what about the India story? The swagger is missing from the biggest beneficiaries of reforms, business, who are not happy (understandably from their point of view) about the changed reality. Government’s interaction with business has become cautious to the point where the latter complain about paralysis. Some also threaten to shift operations abroad, but that’s a mixture of smart strategy and obvious bluster. Has it been that bad? Has big business got its comeuppance in 2011? Well, in part—the arrests of employees of business houses in the 2G scam case is clearly one of the year’s abiding memories. While justice is yet to be delivered, white-collar crime won’t be treated lightly for some time.
From nation-builders to rent-seeking crony capitalists, there’s a huge swing in the view about business. Part of the fault of course lies with “rapacious” business, which seeks a more conducive atmosphere in an uncertain economic environment. For all that anguished letter-writing, India Inc is still “managing the show”. Some clear indications emerged in 2011, from how FDI in multi-brand retail was scuttled to airing that talk of allowing foreign airlines in soon after bank-led bailouts of Kingfisher.
All global economic indicators point to a troubled year ahead for the Indian economy—memories of the tough years after 2008 are still fresh. Growth will slow down, it seems. But many experts do agree that we seem to be talking ourselves into an overly pessimistic view. Any businessman will tell you that it’s better to be prepared for the worst. That would be a more measured context for 2012. Expectations from India are high, so any failing gets accentuated. But, given the poor state of major global economic powerhouses, this is by far a better place to be—and everyone knows that even if they don’t believe it right now.
In this fight between urban forces, it’s not surprising that the politicians will focus on the “real India”—the UPA’s Right to Food is the big bang electoral move of the year. But elections are always around the corner. A lot more serious work needs to be done in 2012, most of all tackling inflation. This drift comes when India is seeking to spread its influence in an uncertain neighbourhood, in tenuous times. Overall, the absence of a firm hand at the helm is the story of 2011.
Some will say our best fiddled away their time when India had to be taken to new heights. Others will say it’s far more important that a society engages with the pressing issues of our time, asks questions and protests. The final verdict on 2011, actually, is that even the World Cup cricket win has quietly faded away. The New Year begins with diffidence.
