The air in Delhi is thick with pollution and Holi milan. William Jefferson Clinton, the 37th President of the United States, is blessing the land of Aryavarta, the largest and (perhaps) poorest democracy in the world. To be sure, the US president may visit India as often as he wants. The state council of China had told Richard Nixon that as he'd expressed the desire to visit China, they were happy to extend an invite. That was a score and eight years ago. In our case, it's reverse. Good ol' Bill might as well say that as India's PM, and that computer-crazy Telugu Desam boy from Hyderabad are dying to see him, he's happy to do them the honour of a visit. So, by the time these lines appear in print, here he'd be! With all his paraphernalia, his dog, his (i.e. Clinton's) drinking water, security establishment and Madame Albright, the rather sharp-tongued secretary of state.
The US president and his entourage have to make threatening noises before they go anywhere, except perhaps western Europe. It's not easy to talk to the French or Germans quite in a manner that a Third World people can be talked to. Madame Albright, in her characteristic candour (except it might seem as arrogance to many), has set the agenda of Clinton's five-day trip. The favourite issue of the Americans, of course, is everybody else having nuclear weapons. The US Congress can refuse to ratify the CTBT. Others, however, must sign it. Why? Because the Americans say so. Or else, there are limits to cooperation. These limits, they maintain, are imposed by US law. The omnipresent 'US law' is now the international law, or so it would appear. India must think of the US law before it thinks of its defence and security. The Americans have no qualms claiming their "approach to non-proliferation is global". Yet, this 'global' approach can't and won't generate any pressures on the US Congress presumably because US law doesn't permit it! Better sign the CTBT is the message; loud, clear and awe-inspiring. Vajpayee is expected to listen to all this and, like Primakov, Russia's ex-premier, sing songs to Madeleine.
So that's command No 1. Sign the CTBT. The second is no less blunt and unambiguous: "Tangible steps must be taken to respect the LoC. For, so long as this simple principle is violated, Kashmiris have no real hope for peace." A blunt message to Pakistan and Musharraf. However, think it over a little, and one can't fail to see Albright has a simple message. Don't do anything that might prevent "the people of Kashmir" from realising their "hopes for peace". The Americans won't tolerate it. It's an American concern. The blunt warning is intended as much for New Delhi as for Islamabad. The implication is, South Asia has become a danger zone. And if you can't improve the situation, there'll be consequences not entirely to the liking of South Asians.
The big mystery, however, is: what are Clinton and Vajpayee going to talk about? That Clinton would talk to Vajpayee is clear. But it's likelier to be a monologue than a dialogue. Clinton commands. Vajpayee listens. But then an expensive, elaborate trip was really unnecessary. Clinton need have only lifted the phone and whispered commands into Vajpayee's ears. Talbott and Jaswant Singh could've made it appear post facto that there was indeed consultation and dialogue. After all, the chorus on CTBT was organised precisely in that manner. Its principal opponents (except perhaps Arundhati Ghose, who piloted India's early opposition) turned into doves. Now we have a different chorus on CTBT emanating from leading strategic analysts. In Greek tragedy, terrible things happen because the superior powers (like Gods) will them. The pathetic nationalist chorus now sings the wills of the superpowers.
What was perhaps not that obvious earlier has become obvious now: the Americans don't like the defence expenditure figures in Asia. The great American people want to decide what and how much our security would cost. And why not? The Liberals would back them-they seriously believe lesser defence spending automatically means higher spending on drinking water and primary schools, though there's no evidence of such transfers of funds anywhere in the world. The Conservatives will go along after initial protests-they have no choice. We didn't even insist any further dialogue on CTBT happen only after sanctions are withdrawn. New Delhi's assurance that there'll be no further tests should've been enough to accomplish that. To cite US law as an excuse as every other American seems to be doing is being clever by half. A power that's declined to be a party to an agreement quotes its own law to force others to subscribe to that agreement. It's easy to see this is hypocritical. What are we going to talk-hypocrisy and the arrogance of power?
No, this is not an argument against talking to the Americans. It's certainly an argument against American diktats. Clinton's trip is intended also to convey US satisfaction up to a point and the lack of it on the economic front. If the trip celebrates anything at all, it's our economic surrender. It was started by the Rao-Manmohan combine. That's why Clinton will call on the Congress chief. But the pace of surrender, the almost thoughtless concessions we're witness to since the ultranationalists have taken over, is mindboggling. Glib comparisons with China are meaningless. The state is much stronger there. Liberalisation is mediated through strong (nationalist) control of the State. This is the least that could've been done. This ramshackle regime can't do so. That's what Clinton will celebrate in his Holi milan.
He'll soon be a lame duck. In US media, he's already one. The spotlights are on Gore and Bush. But this lame-duck president will have his last expression of real power when he turns the ramshackle NDA regime into a lame-duck.
(The author is professor of Chinese studies at the School of International Studies, JNU.)
