The symptoms are always signs of a deeper, bigger malaise. And in Bihar, the signs are getting prominent every day. More so for many legislators hoping for a berth in the Nitish Kumar ministry, waiting endlessly for the all-important call that precedes any swearing-in ceremony. For the record, Nitish was supposed to expand his ministry after Makar Sankranti around mid-January, following the end of the so-called inauspicious month-long period called kharmaas. But it remains on hold, triggering speculation over worsening relations between Nitish’s JD(U) and his ally, the BJP. Ties between the allies have been under strain ever since six of the seven JD(U) MLAs in Arunachal Pradesh joined the BJP in December.
Soon after NDA’s victory in the assembly elections in November, Nitish was sworn in as chief minister along with 14 ministers, including two deputy chief ministers from the BJP. Leaders of both parties assert the expansion will take place “any day” now. “There is no delay,” claims BJP’s deputy chief minister Renu Devi. “The cabinet expansion will take place soon.” Veteran JD(U) leader Vashishtha Narayan Singh concurs, denying any stalemate over the issue. Nonetheless, the delay appears to be telling an altogether different story.
Nitish, however, blames the BJP for the delay, saying the party has not finalised the names of its candidates. There have been several rounds of talks between Nitish and senior BJP leaders, including its state in-charge Bhupendra Yadav, without much headway. On February 1, the BJP top brass deliberated on the probable names of the ministers yet again in Delhi.
Political circles are abuzz with speculation that differences over the number of ministries to be shared by the NDA allies is causing the delay. According to sources, JD(U) wants an equal stake in the cabinet on a 50:50 formula, but BJP wants the berths to be divided on the basis of the numerical strength of both parties in the Vidhan Sabha. The BJP won 74 seats in the assembly polls, while JD(U) could bag only 43 seats. As per the strength of the 243-member Vidhan Sabha, the number of ministers cannot exceed 36 ministers in the state. As of now, BJP might stake claim to 22 berths, while JD(U) may have to settle for only 12. The other allies, Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha-Secular and Mukesh Sahani’s Vikassheel Insan Party are entitled to one each. But JD(U) is said to be far from happy with this formula.
Amid mounting suspense, the return of Syed Shahnawaz Hussain to his home state as an MLC has given another twist to the tale. What was initially considered to be a “demotion” for the former Union minister is now widely believed to be part of the BJP’s larger game plan. There are talks that Hussain might be included in the cabinet, though he has said he was more interested in organisational work. There are conjectures that he might be given the finance portfolio, which was previously held by former deputy chief minister Sushil Kumar Modi. There is, however, a small catch to this: Nitish already has two deputy chief ministers—Tarkishore Prasad and Renu Devi, both of the BJP—and the finance department will put Hussain on a lower rank than his two politically junior party members.
According to sources, BJP has been eyeing the home department since the election victory. The recent concern expressed by several party leaders over the law and order situation in the state was construed as a bid to put pressure on Nitish, who has retained the all-important home portfolio.
Nitish, however, seems to be in no mood to buckle under the BJP’s pressure. Far from it, he appears to have hardened his stand. Recently, the JD(U) strongly objected to the BJP’s invitation to Lok Janshakti Party chief Chirag Paswan to attend an NDA meeting before the Union budget was presented in Parliament. For the uninitiated, the LJP had contested the elections on its own and pitted candidates against all JD(U) candidates in spite of being part of the NDA. It had cost Nitish dear, as 30 to 35 JD(U) candidates lost because of Chirag’s move. Since the LJP had not fielded candidates against the BJP, it was also suspected that Chirag and BJP had a tacit understanding to weaken Nitish in Bihar. Though the BJP had vehemently denied it at the time, JD(U) still considers LJP to be responsible for its poor performance.
JD(U)’s principal general secretary K.C. Tyagi asks how the LJP could be invited to an NDA meeting when it was not with the coalition during the Bihar elections? The JD(U)’s ally and former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi had also termed it as an eminently avoidable step. Chirag did not attend the NDA’s virtual meeting citing poor health. However, given Nitish’s tough stand towards him, his continuation in the NDA may well have a bearing on the JD(U)’s ties with the saffron party.
It is not the first time since the elections that the JD(U) has taken a tough stand against Chirag. Following the demise of former Union minister Ram Vilas Paswan, many LJP leaders had sought to get his wife Reena Paswan nominated as NDA candidate for the vacant Rajya Sabha seat from Bihar, but the BJP chose not to antagonise the JD(U) and named senior party leader Sushil Kumar Modi instead as its candidate.
Political analysts believe that Nitish-BJP relations will be put to test when the Union cabinet is expanded. The LJP currently has six MPs in the Lok Sabha. After Paswan’s death, Chirag is entitled to a Cabinet berth in place of his father. While LJP has maintained all along that it remains part of the NDA at the Centre, Chirag has repeatedly expressed faith in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership. Under such circumstances, what will happen if Chirag is sworn in as a Union minister? And what steps will Nitish take then? These questions are doing the rounds in Bihar’s corridors of power these days. Whatever happens, Nitish has already started strengthening JD(U) within and outside the state assembly. He has decided to contest the upcoming elections in several states, including Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP is in power. The party will also fight the Delhi municipal elections. Back home, Bahujan Samaj Party’s sole MLA Jaman Khan joined the JD(U) while an independent, Sumit Kumar Singh, announced his support to the chief minister. Nitish also had a surprise meeting with the lone LJP legislator, Rajkumar Singh, as well as the five MLAs of Asaduddin Owaisi’s party, AIMIM.
AIMIM leader Akhtar-ul-Iman insists they just discussed issues related to Seemanchal, but the sheer timing of their meeting with Nitish was enough to add grist to the gossip mills that they too might join the JD(U) before the cabinet expansion. Nitish has also held talks to woo back former Union minister Upendra Kushwaha and he too might be inducted into the cabinet. It is said that Nitish wants Kushwaha, who had quit the NDA in 2017, to merge his Rashtriya Lok Samata Party, in the JD(U). Kushwaha is a prominent Koeri leader, while Nitish is a Kurmi. Together, the two dominant OBC castes—often referred to as Luv-Kush in Bihar politics—had played a big role in bringing Nitish to power. After 2005, Upendra fell out with Nitish to form his own party, but his recent electoral setbacks might force him to return to Nitish’s camp.
Nitish apparently wants to revisit this political equation with an eye the next election. Even with Owaisi, he may well be looking at the possibility of a future alliance. AIMIM has emerged as a force in the Seemanchal region. At this moment, each of Nitish’s political moves appear to be pregnant with many possibilities. The BJP, for one, will be carefully watching Nitish’s play on the political chessboard.
