Ever since Narendra Modi catapulted to power in 2014, opposition parties—particularly the Congress—have struggled to find an emotive issue that can outwit the Prime Minister and his party electorally. Be it demonetisation, economic stagnation and rising joblessness or recurring instances of social and communal unrest, nothing seemed to dent Modi’s popularity among the voters. But, as the ongoing farmers’ strike against the Centre’s three contentious farm laws enters its third month with no sign of an early resolution, opposition parties believe scratches have finally begun to appear on Modi’s Teflon.
Respecting sentiments of farmer unions that wanted their protests to stay apolitical, opposition leaders had, in the early days of the agitation, expressed solidarity with the cause, but stayed away from key protest sites on Delhi’s borders. The expression of support was limited to press conferences, delegations to President Ram Nath Kovind and petitions before the Supreme Court demanding repeal of the laws and the assurance that political pressure on the government will be applied forcefully in Parliament. Clearly, none of these worked. The government has only dug in its heels deeper, with Modi maintaining that the laws reflect “long-due reforms” and can be amended ,but not repealed.
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With the next general elections three years away, it’s too early to predict if the stalemate between the BJP-led government and India’s largest, yet somewhat amorphous, votebank—the farmers—would prove to be Modi’s Achilles heel. But opposition parties realise they can’t afford to let this opportunity to corner Modi slide. With Parliament in session, Congress Lok Sabha MPs from Punjab, the state most distinctly identified with the early days of the protest before Rakesh Tikait and his Jat brethren gave it a more expansive makeover, have “decided to collectively move a private member’s bill seeking repeal of the three laws”, says party MP Manish Tewari. With over 200 Lok Sabha MPs listing agriculture as their profession in their poll affidavits, Tewari hopes they would, irrespective of party affiliation, support the private member’s bills.
The Congress, repeatedly ridiculed—even by its own members—for its inability to counter Modi, has sensed an opportunity to resurrect itself. Former party president Rahul Gandhi has said his party “stands 100 per cent with the farmers… this unrest will spread across the country and the only way to stop that is for Modi to withdraw the three laws”. The Congress is the sole opposition party to instruct its chief ministers to pass legislation in their assemblies to negate the Central laws. In Punjab, the Amarinder Singh government had passed such bills, but they are yet to be sent for assent by the governor. “We will bring the bills again as the Constitution provides that if bills are passed twice by the Vidhan Sabha they have to be sent to the President,” chief minister Singh said.
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It was, say party sources, at the initiative of interim Congress chief Sonia Gandhi that opposition parties had decided to boycott the President’s address to Parliament in the budget session, which they did in protest against the government’s alleged highhandedness against the picketing farmers. Party general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra has decided to hold a series of kisan sabhas across Uttar Pradesh—the BJP citadel that goes to the polls next year—after her first such event in Saharanpur’s Chilkana on February 10. The Congress high command has instructed all state units and frontal organisations to organise protests against the farm laws and leaders from agricultural communities have been directed to mobilise public support. In Rajasthan, for instance, Gujjar leader Sachin Pilot started addressing farmers’ mahapanchayats similar to the ones being organised by the Jats in western UP.
Though four states—Tamil Nadu, Bengal, Kerala and Assam—and the Union territory of Pondicherry go to the polls later this year, political leaders across the spectrum believe that the real test of the BJP’s strength will be the UP assembly polls. In western UP, former Rashtriya Lok Dal MP Jayant Chaudhary is drawing huge crowds at kisan mahapanchayats his party has been organising. Chaudhary tells Outlook, “Until the BJP feels that its rural vote, its vote of the farmers, is slipping away, it will not be responsive to the farmers’ movement.” Sources say former UP chief minister and Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav too is planning a series of statewide kisan chaupals. Bahujan Samaj Party supremo Mayawati has also joined the chorus for repealing the three farm laws. However, Mayawati’s party colleagues are still “waiting for her to tell us whether we need to aggressively push this on the streets too…because there is a feeling that we aren’t doing anything against the BJP,” says a party MP.
Other opposition parties, like Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP, have been aggressively pushing for a repeal of the laws. “Pawar saheb has been speaking on the issue from the time the bills were first brought in as ordinances. The MVA government is weighing in legal options to negate the effect of the laws in Maharashtra…we have raised our objections in Parliament and our workers have been agitating too,” says Supriya Sule, Pawar’s daughter and MP.
Rajya Sabha MP and RJD leader Manoj Jha explains why the kisan andolan should give jitters to the Modi government and why the Opposition believes this is its moment of reckoning. “Agriculture is one issue that affects everyone. Unlike other protests that we have seen in recent decades, this is one movement that has no caste, religion or class distinction—this is a movement by the real majority of India and the BJP, in its arrogance of power, is trying to crush it at its own peril,” Jha asserts.
