In August this year, a heavy spell of rain over just a few hours damaged green gram saplings in parts of Haryana, while paddy sowing was delayed in July in parts of Punjab and Haryana due to a delay in the onset of monsoon. Such incidents are not isolated to this sowing season or to the northern plains, but can be found across India.
Agriculture is one of the major causes of climate change in India. Slowly but surely, even the farm sector is starting to face its brunt. As per the newly published Sixth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global warming thresholds of 1.5°C and 2.0°C will be exceeded during the 21st century unless there is drastic reduction in emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the coming years.
Because of climate change, seasons have already started to change in India. “Though overall rainfall in the country during monsoons may not have decreased, the number of rainy days have fallen. Now, there could be heavy rain over a short period, followed by long dry spells, causing crop damage or flooding,” says G.V. Ramanjaneyulu, executive director, Centre for Sustainable Agriculture.
Ramanjaneyulu explains that agriculture is a significant contributor to GHG emissions, particularly nitrous oxide (mostly due to volatilisation loss from nitrogenous fertilisers) and methane (mostly due to water stagnating in paddy fields and dams, cattle enteric fermentation and biomass decomposition). “End-of-pipe solutions won’t work unless we cut down at the source, and instead continue to push agriculture that is high water, high fertiliser and high energy dependent,” says the agriculture scientist, citing the example of Telangana, where in just seven years, the area under paddy cultivation has increased by over 200 per cent, replacing groundnut, sesame, safflower etc. Last year, the area under paddy in the state was one crore acre. Approximate estimates show annual emissions from Telangana paddy fields alone would be 10 crore tonnes, which is equivalent to emissions from around 21.8 million passenger cars over a year. India is estimated to have about 300 million passenger cars, making Telangana paddy emissions a shade under a tenth of pan-India vehicular emissions.
To slow down the pace of greenhouse gas emissions, there has to be a shift in cultivation from paddy to pulses and oilseeds. As the choice of crop is hewed to public policy, the government should incentivise the switch. Ironically, the government, after raising concerns about rising edible oil imports, is encouraging palm oil production in the country, which poses further environmental risks.
Agriculture scientists say the only way to resolve the crisis is to change cropping patterns and stop production practices like using more of energy, water and chemicals such as fertilisers and pesticides. Already, paddy farmers are adapting to climate change by moving towards organic and drip cultivation, among other options.
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“Climate keeps changing, but what is worrying is the rapid pace at which it is happening now. Where agriculture is concerned, rainfall is very important. Climate change is causing excess rainfall in some areas and deficit in others,” says Mangala Rai, former DG, Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR).
The changing weather and rainfall patterns being witnessed is leading to more crop losses and impacting cropping patterns more than ever before. Soil erosion is another major fallout of change in rainfall patterns. On an average, in the aftermath of heavy rain over a short duration, it is estimated that 8-10 tonnes of fertile soil gets eroded over 328 million hectare of cultivable land. In the event of very heavy rain, the loss of fertile soil can be as much as 50 tonnes per hectare, depriving the topsoil of valuable nutrients, thereby requiring more fertilisers later on.
Advances in agriculture research are coming to the rescue of farmers. “Thankfully we now have high-yielding and early maturing crop varieties and hybrids that offer options to farmers who have suffered crop damage or missed sowing at the right time due to uncertain rain,” says Rai, who spends time on his own field since retirement. He clarifies that contrary to reports that short duration crops have lower yield, a short duration basmati variety developed by Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI) has been giving higher yield.
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Climate change is also causing a shift in the pest disease spectrum, with evidence of new pests and pathogen outbreaks, as well as unseasonal insect manifestations. Decline in groundwater availability and inadequate irrigation facilities, particularly in rain-fed areas, has also seen a change in crop patterns, particularly of pulses. The southern states now dominate production of these crops, due to better irrigation facilities in rain-fed areas. Change in weather patterns and rise of new threats have been driving agriculture research towards promoting direct seeding or aerobic rice cultivation, conservation agriculture, protected cultivation, among other strategies.
In 2009, a study of South Asia assessed that the vulnerability of alluvial tracts in the Indo-Gangetic plain—due to development activities, advancement in agriculture, shallow groundwater regime and climate change—to be at 9 on a scale of 10.
Trilochan Mohapatra, secretary, department of agricultural research and education (DARE) and director general, ICAR, emphasises that climate change has become a huge area of concern for India “to ensure food and nutritional security for our growing population”.
Drawing attention to a study by the ICAR-affiliated Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture (CRIDA), Mohapatra says that 2019 was the seventh warmest year on record since 1901, with annual mean surface air temperature 0.36°C above the average over the period 1981-2010. In fact, 11 out of 15 warmest years recorded occurred between 2005 and 2019.
In a recent study, the World Bank projected that India will lose 2.8 per cent of its GDP by 2050 because of extreme weather, leading to significant reduction in living standards. Another study done under National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA), a network project of ICAR using integrated simulation modeling, indicated that in the absence of adaptation measures, climate change projections are likely to reduce rain-fed rice yields by 20 per cent in 2050 and 47 per cent in 2080. In case of irrigated rice, yields could dip by 3.5 per cent in 2050 and 5 per cent in 2080, wheat by 19.3 per cent in 2050 and 40 per cent in 2080, and kharif maize by 18 per cent in 2050 and 23 per cent in 2080. Kharif groundnut yields are projected to increase by 7 per cent in 2050, whereas in 2080, it is likely to decline by 5 per cent. It is also found that in future, the climate is likely to benefit chickpea cultivation, with increase in productivity.
The horticulture sector is likely to be severely affected due to climate fluctuations such as drought, flooding, hailstorm, etc., as higher temperatures and carbon dioxide are likely to alter the biology and foraging behaviour of pollinators, which play a key role in the germination of several crops.
Hailstorms during flowering and setting stage for fruits (March-June) causes lower fruit yields in mango. Flooding for 24 hours during the flowering stage severely affects tomato crops, while flooding and warmer temperatures shorten the duration of development of onion bulbs, lowering yields.
In the livestock sector, National Initiative on Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA) has projected that heat stress is likely to affect dairy animals, by impacting their productivity and reproductive capabilities. This could lead to emergence and re-emergence of many infectious diseases, especially those that are vector-borne, parasitic or protozoan. In poultry, the productivity of heat-stressed birds will decline and the birds will be more prone to diseases.
The NICRA report also indicates that a temperature rise of just 1°C could have profound impact on survival and geographical distribution of different freshwater and marine fish species. The temperature rise is likely to affect fish migrations and habitats, augmenting fish stocks in some places and decreasing them elsewhere, perhaps even causing permanent displacement of stocks to new habitats. Literally, no agriculture sector in India is set to escape the impact of climate change.
(This appeared in the print edition as "Plough the Sand")
