Ever since the phase of its electoral ascendance was inaugurated in Assam in 2014, this has been the toughest battle yet for the BJP. That it managed to retain its imprint, albeit with a trimmed mandate, speaks for its strategic nous, the vast political resources it brings to bear on winning elections, and also a basic skew in how its rival phalanxes were arranged. For, the BJP’s winning streak was maintained this time against a formidable challenge from two flanks.
On one side, vowing to end its run, was a determined formation led by the Congress, in alliance with the AIUDF, BPF and the Left. A third alliance—between two newly formed regional parties, the Asom Jatiya Parishad (AJP) and the Raijor Dal (RD)—too posed a distinct threat because of its potential to snatch away substantial portions of mainstream Assamese nationalist votes on the back of the contentious CAA. Despite large-scale protests against the Central law, a large percentage of anti-CAA votes had flowed to the BJP in 2019 in the absence of a credible alternative. That gap was now filled, with a strong nativist element. Seen against these odds, it was a hard-won victory. As the turnstiles rolled, the BJP ended up holding on to its previous tally of 60 seats in the 126-member assembly, though its alliance went down from 86 to 75 seats.
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It could have tumbled further. What stanched that possible blood loss was a crucial split of votes between the Congress-led front and the AJP-RD alliance. Analysis shows the fragmenting of anti-NDA votes helped the ruling alliance retain 10-plus seats in upper and central Assam, even with lower margins. The Congress-led alliance won in 50 constituencies, and the APJ-RD won only one seat—that was accomplished by the charismatic RD chief and peasant leader Akhil Gogoi, who’s still imprisoned for his role in the anti-CAA stir. The AJP, which evolved out of the old AASU stock, drew a blank.
To hold its own in the hearts of voters, the BJP invoked multiple political strategies. It always weaves the vocabulary of developmentalism into Hindutva, a perennial source of ideological appeal. However, under Modi-Shah, its strategy extended those along two important dimensions. Its core ideological orientation was served by posing East Bengal-origin Muslims as a ‘threat to Assam’s civilisation’. Alongside, it ensured that political space was accorded to Assam’s indigenous tribal and other backward communities.
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In the initial phase of the campaign, the BJP foregrounded developmentalism. Since its ascension in 2016, the BJP-led government has introduced a number of populist schemes for almost all segments of society. It also re-articulated and expanded the coverage of existing beneficiary schemes like ‘Orunodai’ under the National Food Security Act. Meritorious college-going women students were gifted with red scooties for their performance in school-leaving examinations. Besides this populist track, the BJP assiduously wooed the tea tribes, who have emerged as a most dependable political catchment area for the party due to the decades-long work carried out by the RSS.
The larger challenge was to counter the mass discontent against CAA. Towards this end, the BJP strategically moved towards fragmenting the forces of the anti-CAA resistance. By bringing into its ‘rainbow alliance’ almost all leading political outfits of Assam’s scheduled tribes—the Bodos, Rabhas, Tiwas and Misings—the party had already dialled down the intensity of anger in areas dominated by those communities. Now, by exempting the Sixth Schedule areas—home to the Karbis, Dimasas and Bodos—from the purview of CAA, it succeeded in allaying fears further.
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As the days wore on, however, the ‘civilisational threat’ from Bengali-speaking Muslims emerged as the key point of its high-pitched narrative. The Congress’s alliance with Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF played right into that. Projecting its very rival as a ‘threat to Assam’s civilisation’ had an impact in upper Assam, the epicentre of the anti-CAA movement. Political propriety apart, it helped prevent a bigger loss of political mileage than could have happened. And when the anti-CAA votes split, the game was done.
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The writer is Professor & Head of Political Science at Gauhati University, and the author of the forthcoming book Hindutva Regime in Assam: Saffron in the Rainbow, Views expressed are personal
